Trading Week Ahead: US and Russia Energy Ceasefire

Oil prices retreated following an unconfirmed energy ceasefire between the US and Russia aimed at stabilising global markets. Traders are now shifting their focus from geopolitical developments to a critical slate of macroeconomic data. The upcoming US consumer and wholesale inflation readings, alongside Eurozone CPI, will directly dictate near-term US dollar momentum and cross-asset risk sentiment.

👉 US CPI

• Time & Date: 14:30, 14 October (CEST)

• Context: Headline inflation is forecast to accelerate to 3.7%, with core expected to cool to 2.5%.

• Market Impact: A stronger print may renew hawkish rate bets and lift the dollar, whilst a soft core reading could support equities and dovish repricing.

👉 US PPI

• Time & Date: 14:30, 15 October (CEST)

• Context: A vital wholesale inflation read acting as a leading gauge for consumer prices.

• Market Impact: Any upside deviation will signal lingering pipeline pressures and drive bullish USD momentum, whilst a soft print may fuel risk-on sentiment.

👉 EUR CPI

• Time & Date: 11:00, 16 October (CEST)

• Context: A key Eurozone inflation gauge as policymakers assess regional price stability.

• Market Impact: An upside surprise will instantly reprice EUR pairs higher, whereas a downside miss will likely weigh on the single currency and support European equities.

13/10/26

Time

08:00

Instrument

EUR

Event German CPI

Time

16:00

Instrument

USD

Event Existing Home Sales

14/10/26

Time

03:30

Instrument

CNY

Event CPI

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event CPI

15/10/26

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event GDP

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event Retail Sales

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event PPI

16/10/26

Time

11:00

Instrument

EUR

Event CPI

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
13/10/26	08:00	EUR	German CPI
	16:00	USD	Existing Home Sales
14/10/26	03:30	CNY	CPI
	14:30	USD	CPI
15/10/26	08:00	GBP	GDP
	14:30	USD	Retail Sales
		USD	PPI
16/10/26	11:00	EUR	CPI

*All times in the table are in CEST.

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, US100, Bitcoin, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: The Euro remains locked in a clear daily downtrend below both the 20 and 50 EMAs, moving without significant directional momentum.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A corrective pullback to test the active short FVG zone, followed by a continuation lower. Alternatively, a direct downward push without a retest remains plausible.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily candle close above resistance, breaking the ongoing bearish sequence and triggering a structural shift. Current price action shows no indication of this scenario materialising.

FVG Setup: No new FVG formed this week. The bearish FVG from last week remains active and awaits a retest. High volatility is expected surrounding Thursday’s US CPI and Friday’s EU CPI releases.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold consolidated along structural support throughout last week. Friday’s daily close above the lower boundary of the active FVG signals potential buying interest, though the broader trend remains bearish with price trading beneath both EMAs.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A corrective rise into overhead resistance, followed by a short continuation lower. Alternatively, an immediate breakdown and daily close beneath support.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close above resistance, shifting the market structure to bullish with a target toward the next upper resistance level.

FVG Setup: No new FVG setup formed this week; however, the previous FVG now acts as an overhead resistance barrier.

US100

Market Context: Following its recent All-Time High breakout, the index experienced a brief pullback on Thursday as sellers entered the market. Despite this retracement, the broader market structure remains decisively bullish.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A corrective pullback into the nearest support level, defined by the VPOC of the recent consolidation range, where buyers are expected to re-emerge and push the price higher.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the VPOC range, triggering a deeper correction toward the lower support zone.

FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed over the past two weeks. Key macroeconomic events this week are expected to act as major directional catalysts.

BTCUSD

Market Context: Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline on Thursday, printing a bearish FVG that hints at further downside. However, overall market structure remains technically bullish, as price continues to trade above both EMAs without breaking structural support levels.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Despite the bullish EMA alignment, the preferred short-term scenario leans bearish due to the active short FVG and price remaining capped beneath the recent VPOC range. The potential downside target extends toward the lower support zone.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close back above the VPOC range and overhead resistance, invalidating the short FVG and restoring full bullish momentum.

FVG Setup: A bearish FVG has formed on the daily chart. An entry is valid targeting a baseline 2:1 RRR, with an extended run toward the lower support floor.