Trading Week Ahead: Eurozone CPI, JOLTS and NFP
Following hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, traders have sharply repriced September rate hike expectations, pushing US yields higher alongside spiking energy prices. With currency and rate markets on high alert, incoming macro data will dictate near-term sentiment. This week’s focus shifts to Eurozone CPI, US JOLTS job openings, and the high-stakes August Nonfarm Payrolls report.
👉 EUR CPI 11:00, Tuesday (CEST)
Forecast at 2.8% following a 0.1% contraction in the previous reading. An upside inflation surprise could spark hawkish ECB expectations and lift EUR pairs, while a softer print may pressure the Euro.
👉 US JOLTS Job Openings 16:00, Tuesday (CEST)
Forecast at 7.330M, down from 7.359M previously. A weak print would signal cooling labour demand and test dollar strength, whereas a surprise beat could reinforce hawkish Fed bets.
👉 US Nonfarm Payrolls 14:30, Friday (CEST)
Expected at 58K following an unexpected contraction of 23K prior. A strong recovery will validate hawkish policy guidance and bid up the dollar, while a downside miss could fuel risk-on sentiment and pressure the greenback.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/26 |
08:00
|
EUR
|
German Retail Sales |
|
11:00
|
EUR
|
CPI | |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Prices | |
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI | ||
|
USD
|
JOLTS Job Openings | ||
| 02/09/26 |
04:00
|
NZD
|
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision |
|
14:15
|
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | |
|
15:45
|
CAD
|
BoC Interest Rate Decision | |
| 03/09/26 |
16:00
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices |
|
USD
|
ISM Services PMI | ||
| 04/09/26 |
14:30
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
|
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls | ||
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate |
*All times in the table are in CEST.
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: Following a reaction at the volume profile range, the Euro dropped into support, where yesterday’s positive candle indicated a potential return of buyers. The price remains in a bullish structure above the 20 and 50 EMAs, respecting the immediate support zone.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A direct bounce from the current support level, or potentially a brief liquidity sweep to fill the gap at the support’s low before reversing upward.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A bearish FVG formed yesterday, signalling potential downside momentum. However, given the broader bullish structure and proximity to support, this scenario is less likely. A confirmed daily close below support is required to validate further bearish continuation.
FVG Setup: A short FVG formed this week, but considering the bullish market structure and the asset’s position on support, executing this setup carries excessive risk and is not recommended.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The price remains in bullish momentum above both EMAs. Following a rejection at resistance, the asset dropped into support, where it reacted and closed as a pin bar, a clear signal that buyers managed to push the price higher into the daily close. The immediate focus is now on whether support or resistance will break first.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Based on the broader structure, the preferred scenario is an upward continuation breaking above resistance, ideally catalysed by the formation of a new long FVG.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current support level. This would signal a bearish market structure shift and open the door for a deeper drop to the lower support tier.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week due to a lack of sufficient market volatility.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold reacted perfectly to overhead resistance, executing a corrective pullback down to the support zone, which currently aligns with the 20 EMA. This support floor is defined by a prior FVG boundary and a VPOC range.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Because the asset is resting on support and maintaining a bullish macro structure, the preferred scenario is a trend continuation from this level, ideally supported by the printing of a new long FVG.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the support zone. This would indicate a trend reversal and signal a potential further decline.
FVG Setup: A short FVG formed during the sharp downward move from resistance; however, taking this setup contradicts the overarching bullish market structure and is therefore not advised.
US100
Market Context: The index continues to chop around both the 20 and 50 EMAs. On Friday, the price reacted to an active short FVG and subsequently moved lower.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Following the successful reaction to the short FVG, the immediate bias leans bearish. The primary target is the recent swing low, offering a 2.2:1 RRR, with a potential extension down to the structural support zone.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): An upward move toward the overhead resistance zone. At this level, sellers may regain control and reject the price. Conversely, a clean break above this resistance would clear the path toward absolute all-time highs.
FVG Setup: No new FVG setup formed this week, as price action currently lacks aggressive directional displacement.
All information provided herein is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not constitute investment advice or serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation. Please read the full disclosure here.
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