Trading Week Ahead: Will CPI Dictate Next Rate Cuts?

After recent labour market weakness fuelled interest rate cut speculation, traders are turning their focus to upcoming inflation figures. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates unchanged, keeping central bank divergence in play. With critical US CPI and PPI data due, any unexpected inflation readings could trigger sharp repricing across currency pairs and risk assets.

👉 RBA Interest Rate Decision – 06:30, Tuesday (CEST)

Expected to be unchanged as policymakers balance sticky domestic inflation against economic cooling. Hawkish commentary could support AUD pairs, while dovish guidance will likely pressure the Aussie dollar.

👉 US CPI (MoM) – 14:30, Wednesday (CEST)

Forecast at 0.1% following last month’s 0.4% contraction. A hotter print may trigger hawkish Fed repricing and bid up the dollar, whereas a softer reading could fuel risk-on sentiment and boost equities.

👉 US PPI (MoM) – 14:30, Thursday (CEST)

Forecast at 0.2%, up from -0.3% MoM. An upside surprise would signal pipeline price pressures and lift Treasury yields, while a downside miss would reinforce the disinflation narrative and lift risk assets.

11/08/26

Time

06:30

Instrument

AUD

Event RBA Interest Rate Decision

Time

16:00

Instrument

USD

Event Existing Home Sales

12/08/26

Time

08:00

Instrument

EUR

Event German CPI

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event CPI

13/08/26

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event PPI

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
11/08/26	06:30	AUD	RBA Interest Rate Decision
	16:00	USD	Existing Home Sales
12/08/26	08:00	EUR	German CPI
	14:30	USD	CPI
13/08/26	14:30	USD	PPI

*All times in the table are in CEST

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: On Friday, the Euro reached the expected overhead resistance. The market’s reaction to this zone is evident by the rejection wick left on the daily candle. Despite this rejection, the pair remains above both the 20 and 50 EMAs, maintaining a broadly bullish trend.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario anticipates a short-term pullback and market cooling following the resistance test. The price may undergo a deeper correction down to the underlying support zone, which is defined by a volume cluster and an FVG boundary.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A direct breakout above the resistance level without any further pushback from sellers.

FVG Setup: No FVG setup has formed recently due to the tight price rotation just below the resistance zone.

GBPJPY

Market Context: Following a severe flush, the price found support, and buyers appear to have stepped in to drive the price higher, aiming to fill the low-volume void left by the aggressive sell-off. Although the asset is trading below both EMAs and previously closed below structural support dictating an overall bearish structure, the extreme nature of the drop highly favors a relief rally back toward overhead resistance.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continued recovery rally originating from the current support and targeting the overhead resistance. If a bullish FVG forms in this direction, it would offer a high-quality trade opportunity.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current support level, leading to further downside continuation. However, given the magnitude of the recent flush, this outcome is less expected in the near term.

FVG Setup: No FVG setup has formed on the daily chart. If one materialises, an entry aligning with the preferred upward scenario is valid. Alternatively, traders can monitor lower timeframes for suitable entry points.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Since last Wednesday, gold has been building strong bullish momentum and rallying aggressively. Last week, the price successfully broke above overhead resistance and both the 20 and 50 EMAs, confirming the upward trend. This rally is heavily supported by August seasonality, which historically stands as the second most bullish month for the precious metal.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a direct continuation of the upward rally into the next major resistance level, which is defined by the VPOC range and an FVG boundary.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective pullback that retraces the recent aggressive move down to the underlying support zone. As long as the daily candle does not close below this support floor, the overall market structure remains firmly bullish.

FVG Setup: While a bullish FVG did form during this aggressive rally, its unusually large size makes it unsuitable for standard execution due to poor risk-to-reward parameters.

US100

Market Context: Following a recent flush, the price executed a V-shaped recovery, signalling an aggressive trend reversal formation. The index is currently trading above both EMAs and is targeting its All-Time Highs (ATH), potentially mirroring the price action of the broader US500 index, which already reached new ATHs last week.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continued rally up to the All-Time High, supported by the active bullish FVG.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term market cooling leading to a corrective drop into the underlying support zone. Buyers must defend this area and drive the price higher to maintain the overall bullish structure.

FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed last Wednesday and remains active, currently tracking toward a potential 2:1 RRR target.