Trading Week Ahead: What Traders Need to Watch
Soaring Treasury yields and tech valuation concerns have heavily stifled risk appetite across global markets. Traders are now pivoting to vital macroeconomic data to gauge the next Federal Reserve policy move. Upcoming US PCE, consumer confidence and US GDP readings will dictate if restrictive monetary conditions persist.
👉 US CB Consumer Confidence – 16:00, Tuesday (CEST)
Forecast at 90.3 after a previous 90.8 reading. A soft print will directly test dollar resilience and highlight underlying economic concerns.
👉 US PCE Price Index – 14:30, Wednesday (CEST)
The preferred inflation gauge of the Fed is forecast at 0.1% following a 0.1% contraction prior. A hotter print will rapidly reprice rate bets hawkishly and lift the US dollar, whilst a soft reading could support equities.
👉 US GDP – 14:30, Wednesday (CEST)
The definitive growth read is expected to remain unchanged. Any unexpected deviation will aggressively move Treasury yields and dictate broader cross-asset sentiment.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/26 |
08:00
|
EUR
|
German GDP |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence | |
| 26/08/26 |
03:30
|
AUD
|
CPI |
|
14:30
|
USD
|
PCE Price Index | |
|
USD
|
GDP | ||
| 28/08/26 |
14:30
|
CAD
|
GDP |
*All times in the table are in CEST.
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The Euro continues its strong bullish run that began in late July. The price is currently trading above both EMAs and has closed above the most recent resistance, invalidating that zone. The rally persisted until the price struck the VPOC of the upper range, where immediate rejection occurred on Thursday. This rejection is clearly visible in the negative smash bar closures printed on both Thursday and Friday.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continuation of the broader bullish trend, ideally following a corrective pullback into underlying support. The market currently appears overextended, and buyers seem exhausted, making a retracement necessary to gather fresh momentum.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A definitive daily close below the support level. This would signal a bearish market structure shift and open the door for a deeper decline.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed during Wednesday’s large expansion candle. However, due to the excessive size of the candle and clear signs of buyer exhaustion, executing this setup is not recommended.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The pair is rallying strongly against its 20-year negative historical seasonality for this period, maintaining a clear bullish trajectory. The price is currently testing overhead resistance while holding firmly above both the 20 and 50 EMAs.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario anticipates a rejection at the current resistance, followed by a corrective drop into the underlying support zone. To maintain the bullish trend, buyers must step in at this support level and subsequently drive the price above the resistance zone.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below structural support. This would invalidate the bullish structure, signalling a trend shift and a potential decline to the next lower support tier.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG has materialised. However, because the price is testing immediate overhead resistance and is fighting strong negative seasonality, taking a long position here carries excessive risk and is not recommended.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold has broken above its three-month high and continues to push upward. The asset is in an absolute, unquestionable bull trend, further validated by August’s historically strong positive seasonality for the metal. However, immediate continuation faces overhead resistance defined by an FVG boundary and a VPOC range, which may cause a temporary pause.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a direct continuation of the upward momentum, breaking through the current resistance and targeting the marked overhead swing high.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective pullback into the underlying support zone, where the market will decide its next directional bias.
FVG Setup: A long FVG formed on Thursday but remains unfilled. If a new trend-following bullish FVG materialises, it will be valid for entry. Traders may also drop to lower timeframes to hunt for long setups aligning with the preferred bullish scenario.
US100
Market Context: The index has experienced a short-term trend reversal, printing lower prices since last Tuesday. The asset is currently testing the dynamic support of both the 20 and 50 EMAs.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a resumption of the dominant upward trend toward all-time highs, aligning with the previously established, still-active long FVG.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A deeper drop into the marked structural support zone. As long as the price avoids a daily close below this support, the overarching market structure remains solidly bullish.
FVG Setup: The long FVG setup from previous sessions remains active and in play.
All information provided herein is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not constitute investment advice or serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation. Please read the full disclosure here.
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