Trading Week Ahead: A Crucial Week for the Euro and Dollar

As markets weigh a high-stakes Trump-Xi summit, geopolitical tensions and lingering energy price pressures continue to cap risk appetite. Traders are now pivoting to fresh growth metrics to gauge central bank policy paths. Upcoming flash PMIs and US durable goods data will serve as the main catalysts for FX and yield volatility.

• 👉 Eurozone Flash Services PMI
  • Time & Date: 10:00, Wednesday (CEST)
  • Context: Forecast at 51.4, down from 51.6 previously.
  • Market Impact: A downside miss may highlight European economic stagnation and weigh on the euro, whilst a strong print could trigger hawkish ECB repricing.

• 👉 US Flash Services PMI
  • Time & Date: 15:45, Wednesday (CEST)
  • Context: Forecast at 56.0, compared to 56.5 prior.
  • Market Impact: A robust beat will reinforce economic resilience and lift the dollar, whereas a sharp miss could spark growth concerns and fuel dovish Fed bets.

• 👉 US Durable Goods Orders
  • Time & Date: 14:30, Friday (CEST)
  • Context: Forecast at -0.3% MoM, down from 1.1% previously.
  • Market Impact: A deep contraction may drag Treasury yields and the greenback lower, whilst a resilient number could challenge rate cut expectations.

23/09/26

Time

10:00

Instrument

EUR

Event Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI

Time

10:00

Instrument

EUR

Event Eurozone Flash Services PMI

Time

15:45

Instrument

USD

Event Flash Manufacturing PMI

Time

15:45

Instrument

USD

Event Flash Services PMI

24/09/26

Time

09:30

Instrument

CHF

Event SNB Interest Rate Decision

Time

16:00

Instrument

USD

Event New Home Sales

25/09/26

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event Durable Goods Orders

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
23/09/26	10:00	EUR	Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI
		EUR	Eurozone Flash Services PMI
	15:45	USD	Flash Manufacturing PMI
		USD	Flash Services PMI
24/09/26	09:30	CHF	SNB Interest Rate Decision
	16:00	USD	New Home Sales
25/09/26	14:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders

*All times in the table are in CEST.

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, Bitcoin, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: Last week, the Euro cleanly swept the liquidity of its extended consolidation range. On Thursday and Friday, the pair broke out of this range and successfully closed above resistance, clearly confirming a bullish trend.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario anticipates either a direct continuation toward the All-Time High or a corrective pullback into the nearest marked daily support before the upward momentum resumes.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the first support level, which would invalidate the breakout and shift the market structure back to a bearish trend.

FVG Setup: A bullish FVG has formed; however, following such an extreme rally, a deep retracement to this zone carries a low probability. Consequently, market participants can monitor lower timeframes for new trend-following setups targeting the All-Time High.

GBPJPY

Market Context: Following a massive sell-off at the beginning of September, the pound closed below all immediate daily support levels. The price appears to have found a local bottom and is slowly beginning to bounce, though it remains below both EMAs, keeping the overarching daily trend technically bearish. Nevertheless, after such a severe flush, buyers are expected to step in and attempt to drive the price higher.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A long execution based on the newly formed FVG, which signals aggressive buyer entry. Due to the multiple bearish gaps left behind early in the month, buyers have a relatively clear path upward. A daily close above overhead resistance would provide optimal confirmation for this scenario.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current support floor, which would indicate a failure by buyers and a continuation of the heavy sell-off.

FVG Setup: A bullish FVG has materialized and is valid for a long entry, offering a potential baseline target of 2:1 RRR.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold is currently consolidating without significant momentum while resting on structural support. The broader market structure remains bearish, with the price trading below both EMAs, leaving the asset vulnerable to a drop into the lower support tier.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation of the downward momentum, driving the price into the lower support zone.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): The current support holds firm, prompting a rotation higher into overhead resistance. This upper boundary will serve as the critical decision point for the asset’s next major directional move.

FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed recently due to a lack of sufficient market volatility.

BTCUSD

Market Context: Bitcoin has resumed its bullish trajectory following a two-month consolidation phase, recording a 14% gain since last Friday.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A continued rally up to the 87,644 level, which aligns with the Volume Point of Control (VPOC) range on the weekly chart. This area represents major structural resistance, and price action at this level will determine whether buyers can sustain control.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective drop into the nearest support level. This pullback would not invalidate the bullish structure unless a full daily candle closes cleanly below this support.

FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed on the daily chart. However, due to the excessively wide stop loss required on the daily timeframe, this setup was optimal for a lower-timeframe execution approach.

Trade Execution Example: To manage risk efficiently, traders could mark the threshold of the daily gap and scale down to the 4H chart to await a retest of this key level. Once a bullish 4H FVG materialized exactly at this daily point of interest, it provided a highly precise entry signal. By targeting a baseline 2:1 RRR and utilizing a trailing stop based on strict risk management, this setup played out flawlessly, ultimately yielding an exceptional 13:1 RRR.