Trading Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes and Eurozone CPI
With market volatility suppressed near yearly lows, upcoming macroeconomic catalysts will test current rate expectations. The FOMC meeting minutes, Eurozone CPI, and US flash PMIs will drive cross-asset sentiment and currency repricing.
👉 EUR CPI – 11:00, Wednesday (CEST)
Forecast at 2.8% following a -0.1% contraction previously. An upside surprise could spark hawkish ECB rate bets and lift EUR pairs, whilst a softer print will likely pressure the euro.
👉 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes – 20:00, Wednesday (CEST)
Details from July’s policy hold, where three members dissented in favour of a 25-basis-point hike, will be closely parsed. Any hawkish tone regarding persistent inflation risks could lift the US dollar and Treasury yields.
👉 USD Flash Services PMI – 15:45, Friday (CEST)
Tipped to cool to 53.9 from 54.6 previously. A robust beat will highlight economic resilience and support USD, whereas a sharp downside miss may fuel risk-off flows.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/26 |
08:00
|
GBP
|
Claimant Count Change |
| 19/08/26 |
08:00
|
GBP
|
CPI |
|
11:00
|
EUR
|
CPI | |
|
20:00
|
USD
|
FOMC Meeting Minutes | |
| 20/08/26 |
14:30
|
USD
|
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 21/08/26 |
08:00
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales |
|
10:00
|
EUR
|
Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI | |
|
EUR
|
Eurozone Flash Services PMI | ||
|
15:45
|
USD
|
Flash Manufacturing PMI | |
|
USD
|
Flash Services PMI |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The Euro remains at overhead resistance, an area where sellers are typically expected to step in. However, current price action does not strongly reflect selling pressure, especially following Friday’s firm close. The asset continues to hold above both the 20 and 50 EMAs.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario remains a short execution originating from the current resistance zone. The price may push slightly higher to test the upper boundary of this resistance before rotating lower, but the overall structural bias at this level leans short.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close decisively above the resistance level. This would shift the market bias to long, opening the door for a continuation toward the next major structural resistance.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week.
GBPJPY
Market Context: Following a severe flush, the price continues its upward recovery rally. It has recently reclaimed both the 20 and 50 EMAs, providing a strong additional signal of buyer dominance.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continued upward push to test the overhead resistance zone. At that level, sellers may attempt to regain control, but until the price reaches that boundary, momentum remains firmly in the hands of buyers.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term corrective pullback down to structural support. Despite this potential retracement, the overarching trend remains bullish.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed last Tuesday. However, the excessive size of the inefficiency negatively impacted the RRR parameters, rendering the setup invalid for standard execution.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold has rallied into overhead resistance, leaving an untested structural support level below. The overall market bias is heavily bullish, a sentiment further supported by the strong August seasonality discussed in previous analyses.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario anticipates a corrective pullback into the untested support floor. From this level, the price is expected to resume its upward trajectory. A daily close above the current resistance zone would definitively confirm the bullish continuation bias.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the immediate support level. This structural failure would signal a potential deeper pullback toward the next underlying support zone.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG has materialised and is valid for execution. However, strict caution and active risk management are advised, as the price is currently reacting directly to overhead resistance.
US100
Market Context: The index continues its robust rally, aggressively targeting its All-Time Highs (ATH). The clear bullish structure is confirmed by the price trading well above both EMAs and the strong positive reaction to the most recent long FVG.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a direct, continued expansion upward until the all-time highs are reached.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective drop into the most recent structural support. This level must be defended by buyers; if the price breaks and closes below this support, it could trigger a deeper decline toward the next underlying support tier.
FVG Setup: The long FVG setup from two weeks ago remains active and is currently in profit, targeting a 2:1 RRR (aligning with the ATH). A new long FVG formed last week and is also valid for entry. However, because the structural stop-loss parameter is extremely tight, meticulous risk management is required when targeting the ATH.
All information provided herein is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not constitute investment advice or serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation. Please read the full disclosure here.
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