Trading Week Ahead: ECB Rate Decision, US CPI

Following a near 10% spike in Brent crude driven by military escalations between the U.S. and Iran and threats of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, markets are actively pricing in the risk of an energy-induced inflation shock. Concurrently, the technology sector continues to exhibit strong structural momentum, underscored by Nvidia’s declaration that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has arrived following the release of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra model. With geopolitical risks and energy markets on high alert, incoming macroeconomic data will strictly dictate near-term institutional sentiment. This week’s focus shifts to the European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Decision and the high-stakes US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which will serve as critical catalysts for central bank interest rate calibration.

👉 ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14:15, Thursday (CEST)
Major central bank policy read following persistent Eurozone price pressures. A hawkish stance or rate increase will instantly reprice EUR pairs higher and lift regional bond yields, whereas a dovish outcome or cautious forward guidance could drag the single currency lower.

👉 US PPI – 14:30, Thursday (CEST)
Critical wholesale inflation data acting as a primary leading indicator ahead of consumer price figures. An upside surprise will signal lingering pipeline price pressures, supporting Treasury yields and the dollar, whilst a soft reading may fuel risk-on sentiment.

👉 US CPI – 14:30, Friday (CEST)
The main event of the week following a 0.1% month-on-month rise in the previous release. A hotter print could aggressively reprice Federal Reserve rate bets and lift the greenback, while a soft reading may support equities and fuel dovish repricing.

09/09/26

Time

03:30

Instrument

CNY

Event CPI

Time

03:30

Instrument

CNY

Event PPI

10/09/26

Time

08:00

Instrument

EUR

Event German CPI

Time

14:15

Instrument

EUR

Event ECB Interest Rate Decision

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event PPI

Time

16:00

Instrument

USD

Event Existing Home Sales

11/09/26

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event GDP

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event CPI

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
09/09/26	03:30	CNY	CPI
		CNY	PPI
10/09/26	08:00	EUR	German CPI
	14:15	EUR	ECB Interest Rate Decision
	14:30	USD	PPI
	16:00	USD	Existing Home Sales
11/09/26	08:00	GBP	GDP
	14:30	USD	CPI

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: Price action has remained largely consolidated since the previous decline into structural support, with a notable reactive bounce observed during Thursday’s session. The asset maintains a bullish market structure, holding firmly above the 20 and 50 EMAs while respecting the immediate support zone.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The primary expectation is a direct bounce from the current support level. Alternatively, a brief liquidity sweep to fill the gap at the lower boundary of the support zone may occur prior to a structural reversal upward.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Given the broader bullish structure and proximity to structural support, a downside continuation is lower probability. Validation of a bearish reversal requires a confirmed daily close below the current support zone.

FVG Setup: The previously identified Fair Value Gap (FVG) remains intact and continues to hold price. However, its influence as a bearish continuation setup is currently subdued by the overarching bullish market structure and immediate support dynamics.

GBPJPY

Market Context: Price action has experienced a severe downside reversal, aggressively breaking through multiple established structural support levels and key EMAs. This massive sell-off is primarily driven by recent hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), with officials signaling potential near-term rate hikes, which has sparked broad-based Japanese Yen (JPY) strength. Additionally, the broader unwinding of JPY carry trades across the market has fueled this steep decline, resulting in a complete bearish market structure shift.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Following the aggressive dump, the overarching bias remains heavily skewed to the downside. The preferred scenario anticipates a brief upside retracement to rebalance recent price action before executing a bearish continuation lower, targeting deeper downside liquidity pools.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): Given the magnitude of the bearish reversal and the complete disregard for previous support levels, attempting to trade a bullish bounce in the current environment carries extreme risk. The only viable path for a bullish alternative requires an exceptionally strong, high-volume reaction from a major downside support zone to confirm a potential structural reversal.

FVG Setup: The recent sell-off has left behind a distinct Fair Value Gap (FVG). A retracement into this FVG serves as the primary area of interest for downside positioning. A validated rejection from this zone presents a high-probability setup for a short continuation, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) as price targets lower structural levels.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Price action recently dropped into key structural support, eliciting an initial bullish reaction. The subsequent rally tapped into a higher-frame bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) before price rotated back down to retest the support zone. Focus for the upcoming sessions remains on whether price breaks below support or secures a confirmed close above the bearish FVG to establish clear directional bias.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): As the asset rests at structural support while maintaining its broader macro bullish structure, the primary expectation favors a continuation of the overarching uptrend from this level. An ideal continuation setup would be validated by the printing of a new bullish FVG upon a strong reversal off support.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A confirmed daily close below the immediate support zone serves as the primary invalidation of the bullish bias. This structural breakdown would indicate a trend reversal and signal potential for further downside continuation.

FVG Setup: A short FVG was formed during the aggressive decline from resistance. However, taking short positions within this zone directly contradicts the overarching bullish market structure and is therefore not recommended under current conditions.

US100

Market Context: The index continues to consolidate around both the 20 and 50 EMAs. During Friday’s session, price reacted to an active bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and subsequently rotated lower. The formation of equal lows below current price action serves as a potential downside liquidity magnet.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Following the successful reaction off the short FVG, the immediate bias remains tilted to the downside. The primary target is the recent swing low / equal lows zone, offering a 2.2:1 risk-to-reward ratio (RRR), with potential for extended downside expansion toward the broader structural support level.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective upward move toward the overhead resistance zone remains the alternative. At this resistance level, selling pressure may re-emerge to reject price higher. Conversely, a clean structural break and close above resistance would clear the path toward absolute all-time highs.

FVG Setup: No new FVG setup was generated this week, as price action currently exhibits consolidation rather than aggressive directional displacement.