Trading Week Ahead: Will the Fed Keep Rates Unchanged?
Global markets face a defining week. A tentative pause in US-Iran clashes has sent oil prices tumbling back toward $91 a barrel, easing some immediate inflation fears. Against this calmer backdrop, traders are bracing for a massive slate of megacap tech earnings, with Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon poised to rigorously test the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom.
However, the ultimate driver of risk sentiment remains the Federal Reserve, as policymakers navigate sticky inflation to deliver a highly anticipated interest rate decision.
Brace for this week’s three key economic events:
👉 US Fed Interest Rate Decision – 20:00, Wednesday (CEST)
The macroeconomic event of the week, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged at 3.75%. Any hawkish surprises or shifts in forward guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh will trigger aggressive volatility across all asset classes.
👉 US GDP – 14:30, Thursday (CEST)
A definitive read on Q2 economic growth (forecast 2.3%, prev. 2.1%). A strong beat will highlight US economic resilience, aggressively repricing the dollar higher and challenging dovish policy bets.
👉 EUR CPI – 11:00, Friday (CEST)
Crucial snapshot of Eurozone inflation. Any unexpected divergence from the broader disinflation trend will instantly reprice EUR pairs and significantly alter the outlook for future ECB rate cuts.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 |
14:30
|
USD
|
Durable Goods Orders |
| 29/07/26 |
20:00
|
USD
|
Fed Interest Rate Decision |
|
20:30
|
USD
|
FOMC Press Conference | |
| 30/07/26 |
10:00
|
EUR
|
German GDP |
|
11:00
|
EUR
|
GDP | |
|
13:00
|
GBP
|
BoE Interest Rate Decision | |
|
14:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI | |
|
14:30
|
USD
|
PCE Price Index | |
|
USD
|
GDP | ||
| 31/07/26 |
05:00
|
JPY
|
BoJ Interest Rate Decision |
|
11:00
|
EUR
|
CPI |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The Euro remains stuck in a month-long accumulation phase and a broader long-term downtrend, trading below both EMAs. The immediate directional bias is unclear as the market awaits a decisive breakout from either side of the current trading range.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario remains a short continuation as long as daily candles continue to close completely below the VPOC of the overarching range. The immediate downside target is a sweep of last week’s closing price.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A full daily candle close above the VPOC. This would signal a potential move to the overhead resistance or, at minimum, a sweep of the range’s upper swing high liquidity.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week due to ongoing accumulation and market indecision. However, a structural shift could be triggered by Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement or Friday’s Eurozone CPI data.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The market has experienced a lack of significant volatility since last week, with no major directional moves unfolding. However, the overarching trend remains strongly bullish, with the price trading well above both EMAs. A corrective drop into the underlying support zone—formed by the FVG boundary and the VPOC range—presents a likely area for buyers to re-enter and drive the price higher.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continuation of the broader bullish move. If the price drops into the underlying support zone, it will present a favourable area to scale into long positions, particularly if a new bullish FVG forms in alignment with this bias.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current support zone. This would indicate a bearish market structure shift and open the door for a deeper drop into the next underlying support tier.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week due to the notably reduced market volatility.
XAUUSD
Market Context: As anticipated, the price successfully filled the weekend gap (yellow zone) on Wednesday before testing overhead resistance and dropping back into the support zone. During this sequence, a bullish FVG formed, signaling potential upward momentum. This bullish bias is further supported by today’s open, which gapped higher above Friday’s close.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a bullish continuation driven by the active FVG, targeting the first marked overhead swing high.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective retracement to fill the opening gap and retest Friday’s closing price. If the underlying support fails to hold during this retest, the price is likely to break lower and sweep the underlying swing lows.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed on Wednesday, providing a valid entry opportunity. The setup offers potential upside targets at the overhead swing high or a standard 2:1 RRR.
US100
Market Context: The index remains entrenched in a clear downtrend, continuing to unfold in alignment with last week’s preferred scenario. The price demonstrated a precise reaction to the active bearish FVG before expanding aggressively to the downside.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continued downward expansion into the structural support zone, which simultaneously serves as the 2:1 RRR target for the active bearish FVG setup.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A strong structural reversal and a corrective pullback up into the overhead resistance zone.
FVG Setup: A new bearish FVG has materialised this week, though traders must carefully adjust their reward-to-risk ratio if executing from this new zone. Last week’s FVG entry remains active and is currently running in profit. Traders should anticipate significant volatility during Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement, which has the potential to heavily impact the broader market.
All information provided herein is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not constitute investment advice or serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation. Please read the full disclosure here.
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