Trading Week Ahead: PMIs Take Center Stage
US equity is stabilising as reports of major progress in US-Iran peace talks help ease fears of an oil-driven inflation shock. Concurrently, the artificial intelligence sector caught a bid after President Trump softened his regulatory stance on Anthropic, allowing the AI rally to press on as SK Hynix overtakes Samsung.
With geopolitical and tech headwinds fading, traders are pivoting their focus entirely to this week’s crucial economic growth and business activity data.
Brace for this week’s three key economic events:
👉 EUR Flash PMI – 10:00, Tuesday (CEST)
Early Eurozone business reads, with services forecast to improve slightly to 48.6 (prev. 47.7) and manufacturing expected to be unchanged. Persistent weakness will directly pressure EUR pairs and fuel dovish central bank bets.
👉 US Flash PMI – 15:45, Tuesday (CEST)
The premier economic event of the early week. Services are forecast at 51.0 (prev. 50.7) alongside a slight dip in manufacturing to 54.6 (prev. 55.1). Surprises will drive immediate US dollar volatility and dictate near-term risk sentiment.
👉 US GDP – 14:30, Thursday (CEST)
The definitive measure of broader US economic health. Quarter-over-quarter growth is expected to remain unchanged. Any deviations from the consensus will aggressively reprice Federal Reserve rate expectations and trigger cross-asset flows.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 |
14:30
|
CAD
|
CPI |
| 23/06/26 |
09:30
|
EUR
|
German PMI |
|
10:00
|
EUR
|
Eurozone Flash PMI | |
|
15:45
|
USD
|
Flash PMI | |
| 24/06/26 |
03:30
|
AUD
|
CPI |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
New Home Sales | |
| 25/06/26 |
03:30
|
AUD
|
Employment Change |
|
14:30
|
USD
|
PCE Price Index | |
|
USD
|
GDP |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: Last Wednesday, the Euro reacted sharply to overhead resistance following the release of macroeconomic data. The market is currently in a clear downtrend, a structure that was further confirmed by the formation of a bearish FVG. Tuesday’s PMI data release will be a key catalyst for the pair’s next directional move.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a corrective pullback into the active FVG, followed by a short continuation targeting the marked swing low or a fixed 2:1 RRR.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A deeper pullback into the overhead resistance zone, which could still offer a secondary shorting opportunity. However, a full daily candle close above this resistance would invalidate the immediate bearish bias and signal a potential move toward the next structural zone.
FVG Setup: A bearish FVG has materialised and is valid for execution, with downside targets set at the marked swing low or a standard 2:1 RRR.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The Pound has gained strong bearish momentum, closing below both structural support and the previous month’s VPOC. This price action, combined with the fact that the asset is now trading below the 20 and 50 EMAs, signals a clear bearish market structure shift.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a short execution from the active FVG, targeting the lower support zone or a fixed 2:1 RRR.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close back above the broken support level and the previous month’s VPOC. This structural reclamation would signal a potential long reversal toward the overhead resistance.
FVG Setup: A bearish FVG formed on Thursday. This setup is active and valid for trading based on the outlined downside targets.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold spiked after tapping weekly support but ultimately respected the lower boundary of an overhead FVG. The price then dropped back into the weekly support zone, printing a new bearish FVG along the way. While the overarching trend is decisively bearish, strict caution is warranted as the asset is currently testing a major weekly support floor.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario anticipates that overhead resistance will hold, leading to a drop back into the support zone. An untested VPOC from two Thursdays ago is located in this area and is currently acting as a downside magnetic draw for price action.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close above the immediate resistance level. This would signal an impending sweep of the overhead swing high and a potential upward continuation toward major structural resistance.
FVG Setup: A bearish FVG has formed. However, because the price is actively testing a major weekly support level, executing this setup carries excessive risk and is not recommended at this time.
US100
Market Context: The broader technical picture remains largely unchanged. The index continues to operate within a long-term bullish trend but experienced a consolidation phase last week, rotating sideways just below overhead resistance.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario remains long, either via a direct breakout above the current resistance or following a corrective pullback into the underlying support zone, which is defined by the VPOC range and an underlying FVG.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A definitive daily close below the structural support zone. This would signal a bearish market structure shift and open the door for a deeper decline into lower support tiers.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed last week due to the tight rotational price action near the resistance level.
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