Trading Week Ahead: US100 at All-Time High
US stocks are hitting record highs on AI optimism, but geopolitical risks loom large. President Trump’s rejection of an Iranian peace proposal has kept the Strait of Hormuz disrupted, sending oil prices surging. As inflation fears return, traders are laser-focused on Trump’s upcoming summit with China’s President Xi and a critical week of US economic data.
Brace for this week’s three key economic events:
👉 US CPI – 14:30, Tuesday (CEST)
Critical inflation data. Headline month-over-month is expected to drop to 0.6% (prev. 0.9%). A hotter-than-expected print will heavily pressure the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.
👉 US PPI – 14:30, Wednesday (CEST)
The leading wholesale inflation gauge is expected to remain unchanged. An unexpected jump here signals future consumer price hikes and renewed inflation fears.
👉 US Retail Sales – 14:30, Thursday (CEST)
Key measure of consumer spending. Growth is expected to cool to 0.6% (prev. 1.7%). Traders will closely watch to see if high prices are finally prompting Americans to cut back on shopping.
16:00
USD
Existing Home Sales
08:00
EUR
German CPI
14:30
USD
CPI
14:30
USD
PPI
08:00
GBP
GDP
14:30
USD
Retail Sales
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, May. 11 |
16:00 |
USD
|
Existing Home Sales |
| Tuesday, May. 12 |
08:00 |
EUR
|
German CPI |
|
14:30 |
USD
|
CPI | |
| Wednesday, May. 13 |
USD
|
PPI | |
| Thursday, May. 14 |
08:00 |
GBP
|
GDP |
|
14:30 |
USD
|
Retail Sales |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to BTCUSD, EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The price successfully defended the 20 and 50 EMAs, initiating a strong bullish move that printed a clean long FVG. The current market structure clearly favours buyers.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a corrective pullback into the newly formed Fair Value Gap, followed by a bullish continuation. The potential target for this setup is a standard 2:1 RRR or an extension to the upper swing high.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the support level. This would invalidate the FVG and signal a structural shift, potentially causing the price to flush down to the next support zone while sweeping the lower swing low liquidity along the way.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG has formed and is valid for execution, offering a potential target of 2:1 RRR or the upper swing high.
GBPJPY
Market Context: Following a severe drop, the GBPJPY held its support level and has entered a consolidation phase, awaiting its next directional move. Market focus is currently on the lower boundary of the FVG that formed during the aggressive sell-off.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario requires a daily close above the lower boundary of the active FVG. This would indicate a potential upward move toward the overhead resistance. This thesis is supported by the recent sharp drop, which successfully swept a significant amount of resting liquidity.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current support floor. This would signal a direct continuation of the overarching bearish momentum.
FVG Setup: No new FVG has formed recently due to a lack of aggressive displacement following the initial drop.
XAUUSD
Market Context: After a minor sell-off that briefly pushed the price below the 20 and 50 EMAs, gold bounced aggressively. Buyers took firm control of the market, printing a clean long FVG that highlights strong, aggressive upward momentum.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a bullish continuation based on the active FVG. The immediate target is the nearest overhead resistance, offering an approximate 2.15:1 RRR.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the immediate structural support. This would invalidate the bullish momentum and provide a clear signal that sellers have regained control of the market.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG has been created. Entry is still viable, with the primary target set at the marked overhead resistance.
US100
Market Context: The US100 continues to push higher, consistently reaching new highs. Market optimism remains incredibly strong, and the index currently appears unstoppable.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a direct continuation of the dominant bullish trend.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term cooling of the trend, featuring a corrective pullback into the marked support zones. While a daily close below one of these structural supports could signal a trend reversal, it is currently too early to assume such a shift.
FVG Setup: Last Thursday’s FVG setup played out perfectly, successfully hitting its fixed 2:1 RRR target.
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