Trading Week Ahead: CME’s 24/7 Crypto Futures
US stock markets are riding a nine-week winning streak fueled by a massive AI tech boom, but sticky inflation is starting to spook investors. With price pressures rising again, fears are growing that the Federal Reserve might actually raise interest rates instead of cutting them. This week, the AI rally faces a major test with earnings from chip giant Broadcom. Meanwhile, the CME Group just launched 24/7 trading for Bitcoin and Ether futures, finally allowing Wall Street to trade crypto derivatives around the clock.
👉EUR CPI Flash Estimate – 11:00, Tuesday (CEST)
A crucial first look at Eurozone inflation. Markets expect prices to jump back up to 3.3% (from 3.0% previously). If inflation comes in this hot, it will force the European Central Bank to keep interest rates high, putting heavy pressure on the Euro.
👉US JOLTS Job Openings – 16:00, Tuesday (CEST)
A key measure of how many workers U.S. companies actually need. Traders will watch this closely; a big drop in available jobs would show the labor market is finally cooling down, which is the market’s best hope to prevent the Fed from hiking interest rates again.
👉US Nonfarm Payrolls – 14:30, Friday (CEST)
The absolute biggest economic event of the week. Analysts expect a slowdown in hiring, forecasting just 95,000 new jobs (down from 115,000). If this report shows surprisingly strong job growth instead, it will fuel fears of an overheating economy, push bond yields higher, and likely trigger a stock market sell-off.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Jun. 1 |
16:00
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| Tuesday, Jun. 2 |
11:00
|
EUR
|
CPI Flash Estimate |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
JOLTS Job Openings | |
| Wednesday, Jun. 3 |
03:30
|
AUD
|
GDP |
|
11:00
|
EUR
|
PPI | |
|
14:15
|
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
ISM Services PMI | |
| Friday, Jun. 5 |
14:30
|
CAD
|
Employment Change |
|
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to BTCUSD, EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The current session opened slightly below Friday’s close following a week characterized primarily by range-bound consolidation. The most significant technical development is a recent tap into a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), which resulted in a strong price rejection. The broader market remains in a holding pattern, pending a clear structural breakout to establish a definitive directional bias.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario involves a bearish continuation to test the lower structural support zone. At this level, buying interest is anticipated to enter the market, potentially driving price action higher.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): An immediate upward continuation without a prior test of the lower support boundary. This impulsive move would aim to sweep overhead liquidity gaps, with a primary objective of reaching the upper structural resistance zone.FVG Setup: Price action wicked into the aforementioned bearish FVG on Thursday and was sharply rejected. A sustained downward shift in market structure following this FVG test would provide strong technical confirmation for continued downside momentum.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The current session opened slightly higher than Friday’s close, with price action indicating a continuation of the established bullish trend. The market is currently in close proximity to a structural resistance zone; therefore, observation of the price reaction upon tapping this boundary is required to determine the next definitive directional move.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continued rally toward the next major resistance level. Until price action exhibits clear signs of rejection at this upper boundary, the underlying momentum remains firmly bullish.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current structural support level would invalidate the recent upward momentum and trigger a market structure shift back to the downside.
XAUUSD
Market Context: The current session opened slightly negative. Given the recent close below the internal structural support level and an attempted run lower, the broader outlook remains bearish as long as established bearish confluences are respected. However, it must be noted that price action has tapped a strong structural support level, necessitating further technical confluence before confirming the next definitive directional move.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario relies on continued respect of the recent bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), which fully aligns with the overarching bearish narrative. Confirmation requires a further structural breakout to the downside, with the objective targeting the next lower support zone.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A definitive bounce from the current major support level, resulting in an upward market structure shift. This move would invalidate the immediate downside bias by disrespecting overhead bearish confluences, ultimately targeting higher liquidity pools.FVG Setup: A bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed during the previous week remains a primary area of interest. Sustained respect of this zone provides strong confluence for downward continuation, whereas a structural close above this FVG would serve as an immediate invalidation of the bearish setup.
US100
Market Context: The current session opened with a slight bullish bias, with the index positioned at an absolute all-time high and fully entrenched in a powerful bullish trend. The broader market remains supported by a nine-week winning streak driven by the ongoing artificial intelligence technology boom. However, sticky inflation data is introducing macroeconomic apprehension, escalating fears that the Federal Reserve may pivot toward raising interest rates rather than initiating cuts. This established upward momentum faces a critical technical and fundamental test this week with upcoming earnings from key semiconductor sector components, all while broader market mechanics continue to evolve alongside developments like 24/7 institutional crypto derivatives trading.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continuation of the overarching upward momentum into price discovery. Although increased hesitation and ranging price action were observed throughout the previous week, attempting to counter-trade such a firmly established bullish trend carries excessive risk. The directional bias remains firmly long until a definitive structural shift dictates otherwise.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the nearest structural support level. This technical breakdown would indicate a short-term cooling of the market and potentially trigger a deeper pullback to discount pricing, though current price action does not suggest such a reversal is imminent.
FVG Setup: No new Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) were generated during the previous week’s price action. Consequently, there are currently no active FVG setups in play, and technical execution remains entirely dependent on broader structural momentum and established support zones.
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