Trading Week Ahead: Inflation Reality Check
Wall Street faces renewed volatility after a robust jobs report ended the S&P 500’s nine-week winning streak. Intensifying Middle East tensions have driven Brent crude up over 5%, while gold has slumped to an eleven-week low as safe-haven flows favour a stronger US dollar. This sets a tense backdrop for this week’s crucial inflation and central bank events.
Key Economic Events This Week:
👉 US CPI – 14:30, Wednesday (CEST)
Headline inflation is forecast to cool to 0.3% from a previous 0.6%. A hot print reinforces the case for Federal Reserve rate hikes, sparking bearish equity flows and a USD surge. A softer number is required to calm overheating fears and support risk assets.
👉 ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14:15, Thursday (CEST)
The central bank is forecast to hike the main rate to 2.40% from 2.15%. As policymakers navigate severe energy shocks, any further hawkish guidance will instantly reprice euro pairs and offer a bullish lift for the single currency.
👉 US PPI – 14:30, Thursday (CEST)
Wholesale inflation is forecast to drop to 0.7% from a previous 1.4%. Coming right after the CPI, a hotter figure will compound persistent inflation fears, driving bond yields higher and pressuring gold.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06/26 |
16:00
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales |
| 10/06/26 |
14:30
|
USD
|
CPI |
|
15:45
|
CAD
|
BoC Interest Rate Decision | |
| 11/06/26 |
14:15
|
EUR
|
ECB Interest Rate Decision |
|
14:30
|
USD
|
PPI | |
| 12/06/26 |
08:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI |
|
GBP
|
GDP |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to BTCUSD, EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: Following a sharp Friday sell-off driven by the NFP release, the price has fallen below both the 20 and 50 EMAs and dropped into a structural support zone. The daily candle closed slightly below this support level, and today’s opening price also remains beneath it, indicating strong bearish momentum.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Since the price has closed below the support level, the preferred scenario is a continuation of the downward move, targeting the marked swing lows.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close back inside, or ideally above, the support zone. This would invalidate the breakdown and could trigger a pullback into the nearest liquidity range located above Friday’s daily candle.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week due to the nature of recent price action.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The price successfully reached its previous target and subsequently experienced a sharp rejection at overhead resistance. Following this reversal, the pair is currently testing the 50 EMA, which is acting as a short-term dynamic support level.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continuation of the current bearish pullback down to the next major structural support level, where buyers are anticipated to step back in and drive the price higher.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): The price successfully defends the 50 EMA, prompting a bounce and a return to the overhead resistance zone to sweep the remaining resting liquidity.
FVG Setup: The previous FVG setup played out perfectly, successfully securing its 2:1 RRR target.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold is currently in a clear downtrend, trading below both the 20 and 50 EMAs following a severe sell-off on Friday. Sellers currently maintain firm control of the market structure.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a direct continuation of the downward momentum, targeting the marked swing low liquidity pools.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A temporary trend reversal or a sharp relief rally following Friday’s extreme flush, potentially driving the price up to test the previous swing high or the nearest overhead resistance zone.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week. If a bearish FVG materialises, an entry aligning with the preferred downward scenario is worth considering.
US100
Market Context: The index broke below its structural support, and today’s session also opened beneath this level, signalling a potential short-term cooling of the market. However, it is crucial to note that the broader macroeconomic trend remains heavily bullish, and this drop may simply represent a temporary corrective phase before the upward trajectory resumes.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Because the daily candle closed below support, the immediate preferred scenario is a further decline to sweep the marked liquidity resting at the bottom of the current range.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A strong daily close back above the broken support level. This would indicate that the support zone is still being defended, opening the door for a continuation of the broader bullish trend.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week.
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