Trading Week Ahead: All Eyes Turn to the Fed
US stocks are surging following the announcement of an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, which secures the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical breakthrough has sent Brent crude tumbling toward $82 a barrel, while a softer US dollar has sparked a sharp rally in gold.
Alongside a massive boost in equity sentiment from SpaceX’s blockbuster public debut, traders are now entirely focused on how this fading energy shock will influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.
Brace for this week’s three key macro events:
👉 EUR CPI – 11:00, Wednesday (CEST)
The final Eurozone inflation read. This print is crucial for pricing European Central Bank rate expectations and will dictate near-term volatility across all major EUR pairs.
👉 US Retail Sales – 14:30, Wednesday (CEST)
A key gauge of consumer spending is currently forecasted to remain unchanged. A robust figure reinforces underlying economic strength, while a soft print could drag the dollar lower and fuel dovish repricing.
👉 US Fed Interest Rate Decision – 20:00, Wednesday (CEST)
The undeniable event of the week. With rates expected to hold steady, traders will heavily scrutinise new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s forward guidance to see if plunging oil prices revive hopes for future rate cuts.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/26 |
05:00
|
JPY
|
BoJ Interest Rate Decision |
|
06:30
|
AUD
|
RBA Interest Rate Decision | |
| 17/06/26 |
08:00
|
GBP
|
CPI |
|
11:00
|
EUR
|
CPI | |
|
14:30
|
USD
|
Retail Sales | |
|
15:30
|
USD
|
President Trump Speaks | |
|
20:00
|
USD
|
Fed Interest Rate Decision | |
|
20:30
|
USD
|
FOMC Press Conference | |
| 18/06/26 |
13:00
|
GBP
|
BoE Interest Rate Decision |
| 19/06/26 |
08:00
|
EUR
|
German PPI |
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The Euro successfully defended its underlying support zone and climbed into overhead resistance, which is defined by the confluence of an FVG’s upper boundary and the VPOC range. The defining catalyst for the pair’s next major directional move will likely be Wednesday’s CPI data and the Federal Reserve announcement.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A short continuation originating from the current resistance area. The price may push slightly higher to tap the exact VPOC level before rotating lower toward the support zone, with the ultimate target being a sweep of the sell-side liquidity resting below it.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A full daily candle close above the resistance zone. This would trigger a bullish market structure shift, opening the door for a move toward the marked swing high range and potentially extending into the next major resistance tier.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup has formed recently due to a lack of volatile price action. However, if a new inefficiency prints in alignment with the outlined scenarios, an entry will be valid. Traders should prepare for Wednesday’s high-impact news, which is highly likely to produce a trend day.
GBPJPY
Market Context: Last Monday, the pair tested the previous week’s VPOC, reacted aggressively, and printed a clean bullish FVG. The overarching trend remains largely bullish as the price continues to hold above both EMAs and displays positive reactions at structural support levels.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A direct upward continuation targeting the marked overhead swing high.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective pullback down to the immediate support floor, which is formed by the lower boundary of the active FVG and the previous month’s VPOC. If a daily candle closes cleanly below this support, the next downside objective would be the lower support zone.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed on Wednesday following the strong bounce from the previous month’s VPOC. This setup provided a valid entry for a fixed 2:1 RRR target, and the trade is currently active and running.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold dropped into a major weekly support zone, successfully sweeping this year’s lows. While the asset has regained positive momentum since Thursday, the broader long-term market structure remains bearish. Today’s session opened with a significant gap up, driven by news of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A continued rally into the marked overhead resistance, which aligns with the upper boundary of a previous FVG and the VPOC range.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A retracement down to Friday’s closing price to fill the opening gap. Ultimately, the true directional driver will be the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday, which is expected to heavily influence broader market dynamics.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week.
US100
Market Context: While the weekly chart remains decisively bullish, the daily timeframe reveals a bearish structural shift after the index closed below support and printed a lower low. Today, news of the US-Iran ceasefire injected a wave of optimism into the market, resulting in an aggressive gap up from Friday’s close.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Because the price is currently testing overhead resistance, the preferred scenario anticipates a rejection followed by a drop to fill the opening gap, ultimately retesting Friday’s close and the underlying support.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): An aggressive continuation breaking firmly above the current resistance level. This would invalidate the short-term bearish structure and signal a resumption of extreme bullish momentum, setting the stage for a push toward new All-Time Highs (ATH).
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week.
All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders.
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