Trading Week Ahead: The NFP Showdown
Geopolitical de-escalation has lowered oil prices as focus shifts to high-stakes corporate earnings from AMD and SpaceX. Meanwhile, the US labour market remains the primary driver of sentiment, with traders awaiting a pivotal jobs report that will likely dictate the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
Brace for this week’s three key economic events:
👉 US ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices – 16:00, Monday (CEST)
A key factory gauge (forecast 54.0, prev. 53.3). Any major surprises in either headline activity or prices paid will drive instant cross-asset volatility.
👉 US JOLTS Job Openings – 16:00, Tuesday (CEST)
A crucial proxy for underlying labour demand. Lower-than-expected prints will directly fuel rate cut bets and exert immediate downward pressure on the US dollar.
👉 US Nonfarm Payrolls – 14:30, Friday (CEST)
The macroeconomic event of the week (forecast 88K, prev. 57K). With the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2%, any deviations in headline job creation will aggressively reprice both the USD and global equities.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 |
16:00
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Prices | ||
| 04/08/26 |
16:00
|
USD
|
JOLTS Job Openings |
| 05/08/26 |
14:15
|
USD
|
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
ISM Services PMI | |
| 07/08/26 |
14:30
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
|
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls | ||
|
USD
|
Unemployment Rate |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The price successfully broke out of its accumulation phase into a bullish posture, currently trading above both the 20 and 50 EMAs and heading toward overhead resistance. This bullish momentum is fundamentally driven by a weakening US dollar following the Fed’s dovish, data-dependent shift, contrasted with a stronger Euro backed by unexpectedly rising Eurozone inflation.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation of the upward move into the resistance zone, where sellers may step in and trigger a potential rejection.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective drop into the underlying support zone, where buyers are expected to regain control and push the price back up.
FVG Setup: A long FVG has formed, though the entry has not yet been filled. The setup remains valid for execution with a potential target at the lower boundary of the resistance zone, yielding a 2.3:1 RRR.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The pound experienced a severe sell-off starting Thursday, dropping all the way to the major underlying support level where it currently appears to be reacting. This extreme displacement was driven by aggressive Japanese market intervention and a massive unwind of JPY carry trades, overwhelming the Bank of England’s rate hold.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Following such a significant move, the preferred scenario anticipates support defence leading into a consolidation phase, as range-bound behaviour typically follows extreme displacement, with a potential secondary leg down toward the VPOC range (marked by the white line).
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A sharp V-shaped recovery spike back to the upside, though this remains the less probable outcome given the momentum of the drop.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold remains relatively unchanged, continuing to hold its support zone without displaying significant directional conviction in either direction.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred bias leans bullish, given that the support floor has held firmly, offering an attractive overhead target to sweep the swing high liquidity.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below structural support, which would signal a clear continuation to lower price levels.
FVG Setup: The previous FVG setup was invalidated after hitting a tight stop loss.
US100
Market Context: The index extended its bearish trend through last week until reaching structural support, where an aggressive reversal occurred on Thursday via a large, extremely bullish daily candle.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): An upward push toward the overhead resistance zone, which will act as the key decision point for the market. A daily close above this resistance would trigger a structural shift to the upside.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A resumption of the broader bearish trend, targeting a sweep of the marked swing lows.
FVG Setup: The previous FVG setup successfully reached its fixed 2:1 RRR target.
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