Trading Week Ahead: Markets Brace for FOMC Minutes
US stock markets are mostly quiet, but a strong tech rally is masking deeper worries. Even after posting massive profits, Samsung shares fell as sky-high AI expectations proved hard to beat. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have flared up again with renewed missile strikes in the Middle East. Combined with a Federal Reserve determined to fight sticky inflation, traders are bracing for a bumpy week.
Brace for this week’s three key economic events:
👉 US FOMC Meeting Minutes – 20:00, 8 July 2026 (CEST)
A detailed record of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. Markets will heavily scan the release for any subtle clues regarding the central bank’s timeline for future interest rate cuts.
👉 US Existing Home Sales – 16:00, 9 July 2026 (CEST)
A key gauge of the US housing market (prev. 4.17M, forecast 4.20M). Persistent weakness here signals broader economic cooling, which could influence the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.
👉 EUR German CPI – 08:00, 10 July 2026 (CEST)
The top proxy for Eurozone inflation (expected unchanged at -0.3%). Persistently high numbers will keep the European Central Bank hawkish, directly impacting EUR pairs and European equities.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/26 |
04:00
|
NZD
|
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision |
|
20:00
|
USD
|
FOMC Meeting Minutes | |
| 09/07/26 |
03:30
|
CNY
|
CPI |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
Existing Home Sales | |
| 10/07/26 |
08:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI |
|
14:30
|
CAD
|
Employment Change |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: Following a recent flush, the euro is regaining bullish momentum, though it still faces overhead resistance paired with a Fair Value Gap (FVG). Monday’s close formed a pin bar, hinting at a potential breakout of this resistance, but waiting for clear confirmation is advisable.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario remains a short continuation targeting the underlying swing low.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A full daily candle close above the resistance level. This would confirm the bullish momentum, with a potential upside target at the next major resistance zone.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week. However, if one materializes in the direction of the preferred scenario, an entry is valid. Elevated volatility is expected on Wednesday during the FOMC minutes release.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The price closed decisively above resistance, confirming a strong bullish trend driven by aggressive buyer activity. The market has currently broken above the six-month high established on April 30.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a direct continuation of the current bullish trend. If a new bullish FVG forms on the daily chart, it is valid for execution; alternatively, traders can drop to lower timeframes to hunt for trend-following FVGs.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term cooling of the trend, leading to a corrective drop down to the underlying support zone, which consists of a VPOC range and an FVG.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week. However, a previous trend-following FVG recently played out, successfully securing a 2:1 RRR target.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold executed a minor corrective pullback into overhead resistance and is currently reacting to this zone. The broader macro trend remains bearish, making the current resistance level a critical decision point for the market.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a downward rotation back into the VPOC range, where the price will either find support and react positively or break lower to continue the overarching downtrend.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close above the current resistance zone. This would signal a bullish market structure shift, with potential targets at the marked swing high and extending up to the next structural resistance.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed on the daily chart. Traders should monitor lower timeframes for the development of a bearish FVG aligning with the preferred scenario. Heightened volatility is anticipated during Wednesday’s FOMC event.
US100
Market Context: Following a rejection at overhead resistance, the index is currently trading between the 20 and 50 EMAs and testing a structural support level.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario anticipates a positive reaction at the current support, followed by an upward continuation back toward the overhead resistance.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A breakdown and daily close below the current support. This would signal further downward momentum, with potential targets at the recent swing low and extending to the next underlying support zone.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week.
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