Trading Week Ahead: NFP and JOLTS
US equity futures face renewed pressure amid escalating US-Iran strikes in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Bitcoin holds the $60,000 level despite mounting scrutiny over Strategy Inc’s $13 billion unrealised loss and funding model. In tech, SpaceX’s fast-tracked Nasdaq inclusion is poised to trigger massive passive inflows. Amid these shifting risks, traders now pivot to a critical week of labour and inflation data.
Brace for this week’s three key economic events:
👉 US JOLTS Job Openings – 16:00, Tuesday (CEST)
A key gauge of US labour demand. A reading showing fewer job openings will support the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, driving immediate market reactions.
👉 EUR CPI – 11:00, Wednesday (CEST)
A crucial inflation read for the Eurozone. Persistently high numbers will keep the European Central Bank hawkish, directly impacting EUR pairs and European equities.
👉 US Nonfarm Payrolls – 14:30, Thursday (CEST)
The biggest macroeconomic event of the week. Strong job growth will fuel fears of an overheating economy and delay expected rate cuts, heavily dictating near-term risk sentiment and US dollar volatility.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/26 |
03:30
|
CNY
|
Manufacturing PMI |
|
08:00
|
GBP
|
GDP | |
|
14:00
|
EUR
|
German CPI | |
|
14:30
|
CAD
|
GDP | |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
CB Consumer Confidence | |
|
USD
|
JOLTS Job Openings | ||
| 01/07/26 |
11:00
|
EUR
|
CPI |
|
14:15
|
USD
|
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | |
|
16:00
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI | |
| 02/07/26 |
14:30
|
USD
|
Average Hourly Earnings |
|
USD
|
Nonfarm Payrolls |
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside volume analysis (VPOC) and the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current ones.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The EURUSD has experienced a significant decline, successfully sweeping a major liquidity point visible on the chart. The broader market structure reflects heavy bearish momentum leading into this key structural level, setting the stage for a potential corrective phase.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The market remains in a definitive downtrend. Following the sweep of the major historical liquidity pool, a corrective pullback is highly probable. The preferred scenario is for this retracement to unfold, ultimately establishing a high-probability bearish continuation move in alignment with the dominant trend.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): Given the recent sweep of the major liquidity level, price action may exhibit an aggressive upward reaction. However, executing long positions under the current market conditions is comparable to catching a falling knife, as it involves trading a premature counter-trend reversal against prevailing structural momentum.
GBPJPY
Market Context: Following a strong downward expansion, price action tapped into a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and tested the dynamic resistance of both EMA levels. Momentum has largely stalled since the initial FVG tap last Monday, with the market subsequently consolidating within a tight trading range for the remainder of the week.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a short execution from the active FVG, targeting the lower structural support zone or a fixed 2:1 Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR).
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): The bearish bias would be invalidated by a daily candle close back above the broken support level and the previous month’s Volume Point of Control (VPOC). This structural reclamation would signal a potential long reversal toward overhead resistance.
FVG Setup: A bearish FVG formed last Thursday remains active. This imbalance provides a valid setup for short positioning, aligning with the outlined downside targets.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold continues its prevailing downtrend. Price action is currently testing a major weekly structural support level, although a confirmed close below this zone has yet to materialize. The daily timeframe maintains heavy bearish momentum, evidenced by a definitive structural close below the recent swing low on Wednesday.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario anticipates a corrective retracement into overhead structural resistance, followed by a bearish continuation move. However, directional clarity is currently obstructed by the ongoing test of heavy weekly support. Executing short positions carries elevated risk under these conditions, necessitating patience for further, distinct market structure confirmation before entry.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): The alternative scenario requires a full daily candle close above immediate overhead resistance. Given the ongoing test of major weekly support, this structural reclamation could signal a potential reversal. Nevertheless, initiating long positions remains a high-risk endeavor against the dominant bearish momentum.
FVG Setup: While multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) have formed during the recent descent, price action is currently overextended into a heavy structural support zone. Consequently, none of these active imbalances present a high-probability setup for execution at this time.
US100
Market Context: Following a prolonged period of upward momentum, the US100 printed a significantly bearish weekly close. This sharp downside expansion was primarily driven by broader macroeconomic headwinds, including elevated Treasury yields and a risk-off rotation out of the technology sector. Price action has since decelerated and is currently trading within a major daily structural support zone.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Given the current positioning within a definitive daily support zone, the anticipated scenario is a structural defense by buyers. A confirmed rejection of this level, accompanied by a market structure shift on the lower timeframes, would signal a bullish reversal targeting immediate overhead liquidity and historical resistance levels.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A full daily candle close below the current support zone would invalidate the immediate reversal thesis. This structural breakdown would indicate a continuation of the bearish weekly momentum, exposing the index to further downside expansion toward the next major liquidity pools.
FVG Setup: Price action is currently being monitored for the formation of a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) on the lower timeframes as the index tests the daily support. The emergence of a valid imbalance is required to provide high-probability structural confirmation for long execution.
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