Trading Week Ahead: CPI, Retail Sales & Powell in Focus
Markets brace for a volatile week with CPI on Tuesday, retail sales and PPI Thursday, followed by Powell’s speech. A hotter CPI or hawkish Powell could slam the brakes on rate cut hopes, while soft data may ignite a risk-on rally. Are you ready for this week?
• US CPI
Inflation comes back into focus on Tuesday with April’s CPI report. After a surprise decline of -0.1% last month, markets now anticipate a rebound to +0.3%. A stronger reading would likely reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, delay expectations for rate cuts, and put upward pressure on the dollar and yields. On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected result could support the dovish narrative and spark risk-on flows across markets.
• US Retail Sales & PPI
Thursday brings a key data combo that could stir market volatility. Retail sales are expected to flatline at 0.0%, down sharply from the previous 1.4%, raising concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending. At the same time, PPI is forecast to rise to +0.2% from -0.4%, suggesting a potential uptick in producer-side inflation. This mix of soft demand and rising costs could complicate the Fed’s outlook. If confirmed, markets may reassess the timing and pace of future rate cuts, impacting both USD and risk assets.
• Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Just minutes after Thursday’s releases, Jerome Powell takes the stage. If he highlights easing inflation or softening economic data, markets may lean further into rate cut expectations. A more hawkish tone could support the dollar and trigger risk-off moves across asset classes.
8:00 AM
GBP
Claimant Count Change
11:00 AM
EUR
ZEW Economic Sentiment
2:30 PM
USD
CPI
3:30 AM
AUD
Wage Price Index
8:00 AM
EUR
German CPI
3:30 AM
AUD
Employment Change
8:00 AM
GBP
GDP
11:00 AM
EUR
GDP
2:30 PM
USD
PPI, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims
2:40 PM
USD
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
1:50 AM
JPY
GDP
4:00 PM
USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, May. 13 |
8:00 AM |
GBP
|
Claimant Count Change |
|
11:00 AM |
EUR
|
ZEW Economic Sentiment | |
|
2:30 PM |
USD
|
CPI | |
| Wednesday, May. 14 |
3:30 AM |
AUD
|
Wage Price Index |
|
8:00 AM |
EUR
|
German CPI | |
| Thursday, May. 15 |
3:30 AM |
AUD
|
Employment Change |
|
8:00 AM |
GBP
|
GDP | |
|
11:00 AM |
EUR
|
GDP | |
|
2:30 PM |
USD
|
PPI, Retail Sales, Unemployment Claims | |
|
2:40 PM |
USD
|
Fed Chair Powell Speaks | |
| Friday, May. 16 |
1:50 AM |
JPY
|
GDP |
|
4:00 PM |
USD
|
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations |
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical method combines the 20 and 50-period EMAs to identify market direction, paired with the Fair Value Gap (FVG) concept – price imbalances caused by strong market momentum that highlight potential entry and exit zones. The strategy is applicable to instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD, offering a perspective on trading opportunities from both the previous and current weeks.
Last Week’s Opportunities
EURUSD
Market Context: The euro remains above the 50 EMA, indicating a swing bullish structure, but trades below the 20 EMA, reflecting short-term weakness. Last week’s short FVG setup hit its 2:1 RRR target.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Continued downside into the nearby support zone is preferred if bearish momentum holds.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A move to overhead resistance followed by a full candle close above could shift structure back to bullish.
Setup: No new FVG setup formed this week. The market may remain reactive without fresh structure.
US30
Market Context: Price continues its bullish momentum with minimal corrections. Last Thursday tapped resistance, and Friday brought a minor pullback after filling previous FVG liquidity.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation toward swing highs remains the base case if momentum persists.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A deeper correction may occur after resistance tests, potentially targeting the swing lows.
Setup: No valid FVG setup has formed this or last week. Traders should watch for reactive pullbacks.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold confirmed its long-term bullish trend after reclaiming the all-time high. A brief correction at the end of the week led to a new short FVG setup, following a failed attempt earlier.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A short-term pullback into support zones with a potential sweep of swing lows remains the base case.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): Close above resistance could invalidate the short bias and reintroduce long targets.
Setup: A valid short FVG setup is active this week. Last week’s setup was invalidated by stop-out; the current setup is still valid.
GBPJPY
Market Context: GBPJPY trades above both 20 and 50 EMAs, confirming a strong bullish structure. Price action favours further upside after rebounding from short-term support.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Upside continuation into resistance and targeting swing highs is preferred.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Break below support could trigger a drop into the FVG zone from previous lows for liquidity fill.
Setup: A valid FVG long setup is active this week. Last week’s attempt hit SL, but this week’s setup remains in play.
All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders. The information on this site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local laws or regulations. FTMO companies do not act as a broker and do not accept any deposits. The offered technical solution for the FTMO platforms and data feed is powered by liquidity providers.
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