Trading Week Ahead: Who Moves First, the Fed or the Market?

This week’s macro data could shape market direction, with PPI, Retail Sales and GDP updates offering a clearer picture of inflation, consumer demand and growth. We'll break down the potential impact and highlight key support and resistance zones to watch across major assets.

👉 US PPI
Markets will closely watch producer inflation data, with MoM PPI expected to rebound from -0.1% to 0.3%. A hotter-than-expected print could signal underlying price pressures and reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed easing. This would likely support the US dollar and push yields higher.

👉 US Retail Sales
Retail sales are forecast to slow from 0.6% to 0.4%, indicating a possible cooling in consumer demand. However, if the data hold up stronger than expected, it could reinforce the narrative of economic resilience, supporting the dollar and weighing on rate cut bets.

👉 US GDP
The second estimate of Q3 GDP follows a strong initial reading of 3.8%. If growth is revised higher or confirmed at robust levels, it could boost investor confidence in the US economy, lifting risk sentiment and backing further USD strength.

*All times in the table are in GMT+1

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading approach leverages the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG) is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD and provides insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: EURUSD is trading below both the 20 and 50 EMAs, confirming a bearish trend. Last week’s sharp drop brought the price into a support zone, where buyers are beginning to show some interest.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation lower following the short FVG setup, targeting the recent swing low and potentially the next support level.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A break above resistance would invalidate the short setup and could lead to a liquidity sweep above recent highs.

FVG Setup: A short FVG formed during last week's drop and remains valid.

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GBPJPY

Market Context: GBPJPY continues to climb with steady bullish momentum. The structure remains strong and shows no signs of reversal for now.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continued upside toward the weekly high remains the primary outlook.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A pullback into the 20 EMA could provide a potential bounce area for buyers to re-enter.

FVG Setup: No FVG formed on the daily timeframe, but potential setups may be found on lower timeframes.

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XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold has remained relatively flat since last week. Price is currently consolidating near the 20 EMA and holding the edge of a short FVG, signalling indecision before the next move.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation of last week’s short setup remains in focus, with a possible move down to the next support zone.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If current support holds, price could revisit the upper edge of the FVG or even retest the resistance zone above.

FVG Setup: The short FVG setup from last week is still in play.

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US30

Market Context: After the recent drop, US30 is consolidating below both EMAs. Last Thursday’s strong rejection from resistance suggests continued bearish pressure.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A further drop toward the highlighted liquidity zone remains the base case.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A break above the EMAs and resistance could trigger a move to fill gaps left behind during the selloff.

FVG Setup: No new FVG was formed this week.