Trading Week Ahead: US Shutdown Nears Possible End

The end of the longest US shutdown seems increasingly likely, but it’s not confirmed yet. Market focus is shifting back to the data. UK GDP, US CPI and jobless claims headline this week’s key releases.

👉 Read the full outlook to stay ahead of the moves.

• UK GDP
Thursday’s GDP release offers a crucial update on the health of the UK economy. Monthly growth is expected to slow to 0.0% from a previous 0.1%, signalling a potential loss of momentum. A stronger print could bolster BoE hawks and support the pound, while a contraction may raise recession concerns and weigh on GBP crosses.

• US CPI
The upcoming inflation report is this week’s standout macro release. Headline CPI is forecast to slow slightly from 0.3% to 0.2%, signalling a possible cooling in inflation pressures. A softer‑than‑expected print may revive market expectations of Fed easing, pressuring the dollar and supporting risk assets. Conversely, a hotter reading would reinforce the “higher for longer” rate stance and likely benefit the greenback.

• US Initial Jobless Claims
The weekly labour market update will serve as a near‑term gauge of resilience. A rise in claims could signal cooling in the labour market, enhancing speculation of a dovish Fed shift and boosting risk sentiment. Conversely, persistently low claims would reinforce the Fed’s current hawkish stance, supporting the dollar and pressuring risk assets.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Nov. 11	8:00 AM	GBP	Claimant Count Change
Wednesday, Nov. 12	8:00 AM	EUR	German CPI
Thursday, Nov. 13	8:00 AM	GBP	GDP
	2:30 PM	USD	Initial Jobless Claims
	2:30 PM	USD	CPI

*All times in the table are in GMT+1

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading approach leverages the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG) is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD and provides insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: After last week’s decline, EURUSD found support and is now building bullish momentum again. Price is currently holding below the 50 EMA, which could lead to a short pullback into the newly formed FVG near the recent low. This area could act as a potential launch point for further upside.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation higher from the FVG zone with potential targets at a 2:1 RRR or the first marked swing high.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A deeper move into the support zone is still possible if bullish momentum fails to hold.

FVG Setup: A long FVG has formed from the recent low and is active, offering potential entries toward 2:1 RRR or the swing high above.

GBPJPY

Market Context: GBPJPY also bounced near a support area and is now showing signs of bullish momentum. The pair is currently testing resistance while trading above the 20 and 50 EMAs.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): If today's candle forms a long FVG and closes above the first resistance, this would confirm a bullish market structure shift. Price could then aim for the next resistance or swing highs where liquidity may be targeted.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A move toward the higher resistance zone, where sellers could look to re-enter the market.

FVG Setup: No FVG has formed yet this week. A potential setup may emerge if the price breaks and closes above the current resistance level.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold is currently trading between a support and resistance zone. A breakout from either side could trigger the next major move.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A rejection from resistance could lead to a move lower toward the support zone.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A confirmed breakout above resistance would suggest strong buyer interest and open the door for a move toward the next resistance or even all-time highs.

FVG Setup: No FVG has formed this week. The market is in a key decision zone, and traders should watch for a breakout in the coming sessions.

US30

Market Context: The index reacted positively to the support zone created by an unfilled overnight gap. Friday’s pin bar close confirmed strong buyer interest from that level.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation higher remains the primary view, with potential for a new all-time high if momentum holds.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A retest or breakdown of the support zone is still possible if the price loses strength.

FVG Setup: No FVG has formed this week as the market continues to consolidate near the highs.

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