Trading Week Ahead: Top Events Set to Shake The Markets

A trio of top-tier US inflation releases could reshape Fed rate bets and fuel major market moves. From CPI to consumer sentiment, this week’s data is set to spark volatility in the USD, equities, and bonds. See what these releases mean for markets and where the opportunities lie.

• US CPI Inflation
The Consumer Price Index release will be a key determinant for near-term Fed policy expectations. Core inflation trends remain under close scrutiny, with month-on-month CPI expected at 0.2%, unchanged from the previous reading. Any upside surprise could reduce market bets on rate cuts, triggering USD strength and a decline in risk assets. Conversely, softer-than-expected prints would reinforce the dovish bias, pressuring yields and the dollar.

• US PPI
Producer Price Index data will provide insight into upstream inflation trends that often lead consumer prices. The forecast stands at 0.2% m/m after a sharp 0.5% decline in the previous reading. A stronger-than-expected PPI print may fuel concerns about persistent inflation, prompting a hawkish repricing in Fed expectations, boosting the dollar and bond yields while weighing on equities.

• UoM Consumer & Inflation Expectations
This gauge often signals early shifts in consumer outlook and price expectations. Inflation expectations in the previous release stood at a high 6.6%, making this week's print especially relevant for gauging inflation persistence. An uptick could reignite inflation concerns, whereas a decline may calm Fed tightening fears. Volatility across USD pairs and Treasuries is likely.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Jun. 10	8:00 AM	GBP	Claimant Count Change
Wednesday, Jun. 11	2:30 PM	USD	CPI
Thursday, Jun. 12	8:00 AM	GBP	GDP
	2:30 PM	USD	PPI
	2:30 PM	USD	Unemployment Claims
Friday, Jun. 13	8:00 AM	EUR	German CPI
Friday, Jun. 13	4:00 PM	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations

*All times in the table are in GMT+2

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading approach leverages the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG) is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD and offers insights into recent price behaviour along with potential trade setups.

Weekly Market Outlook

EURUSD

Market Context: The euro continues to hold above the 20 EMA, maintaining its bullish market structure. Late last week, price tested the resistance zone again, where the bullish move temporarily paused.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): As long as the price holds above the 20 EMA, the bullish bias remains valid with targets at the yearly high. A clean break and close above resistance could unlock further upside.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A full-bodied candle close below the 20 EMA could signal a structural shift, favouring a move lower.

Setup: No valid FVG setup formed this week or the previous week.

GBPJPY

Market Context: Similar to EURUSD, GBPJPY is respecting the 20 EMA and gained momentum at the end of the week following a stronger bullish impulse.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Price is poised to move higher toward the marked resistance and liquidity zone. Reaction at that level will likely determine the next directional leg.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A rejection at resistance could trigger a drop into the nearest support. If this level fails to hold, a deeper move toward the next support zone is likely, driven by a liquidity sweep.

Setup: No valid FVG setup formed this week or last week.

Last Week’s Opportunities

XAUUSD

Market Context: After consolidating above the 20 EMA, gold formed a bullish FVG last week, signalling renewed buying pressure.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The active long FVG setup points to a continuation toward resistance, with a possible sweep of swing highs if momentum holds.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A close below both support and the 20 EMA would invalidate the FVG and shift the bias to the downside, targeting swing lows and deeper support.

Setup: A bullish FVG setup formed last week and remains active. No new setup was created this week.

US30

Market Context: After retesting the 20 EMA, US30 resumed its long-term bullish trend, confirmed by strong price action into Friday's close.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The market is positioned for a continuation move toward the marked swing high and upper resistance zone.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A pullback into support may occur. If buyers fail to step in, deeper downside is possible as the market targets liquidity below the previous lows.

Setup: Last week’s bullish FVG setup is still in play, with no additional setups forming this week.

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