Trading Week Ahead: Spot the Next Big Move with FVG Strategy

A high-stakes week is ahead as markets brace for a trio of key events: Fed Chair Powell’s speech, the release of FOMC meeting minutes, and fresh Flash PMI data. Each event carries the potential to stir volatility across markets. Dive in for a full breakdown of how these events could reshape rate expectations and market sentiment.

• FOMC Minutes
The latest FOMC minutes will offer insight into the Fed’s policy mindset. Markets will look for signs of growing concern over economic softness or an openness to cutting rates in the near term. Any dovish signal could boost expectations for easing and trigger moves in the bond and FX markets.

• US Flash PMIs
Thursday’s Flash PMIs will provide a first look at August’s business activity. Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up slightly from 49.8 to 49.9, still signalling contraction. Meanwhile, Services PMI is forecast to drop sharply from 55.7 to 53.3, pointing to a slowdown in the services-driven sector. A weaker-than-expected print may intensify concerns over economic momentum and increase pressure on the Fed to consider rate cuts.

• Powell Speaks
All eyes will be on Friday as Fed Chair Jerome Powell takes the stage. Traders will dissect every word for clues on rate direction. A dovish tilt could weaken the US dollar, lower Treasury yields, and lift risk assets like equities and gold.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Aug. 19	2:30 PM	CAD	CPI
Wednesday, Aug. 20	4:00 AM	NZD	Official Cash Rate
	8:00 AM	GBP	CPI
	11:00 AM	EUR	CPI
	8:00 PM	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, Aug. 21	10:00 AM	EUR	Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
	10:30 AM	GBP	Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
	2:30 PM	USD	Unemployment Claims
	2:30 PM	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
	3:45 PM	USD	Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
	4:00 PM	USD	Existing Home Sales
Friday, Aug. 22	8:00 AM	GBP	Retail Sales
	8:00 AM	EUR	German GDP
	2:30 PM	CAD	Retail Sales
	4:00 PM	USD	Fed Chair Powell Speaks

*All times in the table are in GMT+2

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical method combines the 20- and 50-period EMAs to identify market direction, paired with the Fair Value Gap (FVG) concept – price imbalances caused by strong market momentum that highlight potential entry and exit zones. The strategy is applicable to instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD, offering a perspective on trading opportunities from both the previous and current weeks.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

US30

Market Context: After last week’s shift into a bullish structure, price has been holding near the highs. Liquidity was taken below the trendline, and the market continues to respect upside momentum.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation higher from the FVG zone in line with the current structure. Buyers may target further swing levels.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A decline following Thursday’s liquidity grab could drive price back into the lower FVG, where buyers may look for renewed entries.

Setup: A new FVG has formed this week in the direction of the main trend, offering potential for continuation trades.

Last Week’s Opportunities

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold remains trapped in a range, though last week sellers drove an aggressive move that carved out an FVG. Price is consolidating around the 20 and 50 EMAs, reflecting uncertainty as both sides compete for control.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The dominant expectation is for sellers to extend pressure from the FVG zone. A breakdown towards the lower edge of the structure would confirm bearish intent, while resistance overhead is likely to cap any short-lived rallies.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If buyers manage to defend the FVG, price could reclaim higher ground and sweep liquidity above recent swing levels. This would open the door for a short-term recovery.

Setup: Last week’s FVG remains the key pivot. How price reacts here will decide whether gold develops a deeper bearish leg or attempts a rebound.

GBPJPY

Market Context: The market delivered a strong rally over the past two weeks, fuelled by aggressive buying. However, after last week’s liquidity sweep, the pace of upside momentum began to ease. The broader structure remains bullish, but signs of slowing strength are visible.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation higher is still the case, with buyers aiming for new swing highs.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A correction into lower FVG zones cannot be ruled out. Such a retracement would refresh the structure and provide better-priced entries for buyers before another push upward.

Setup: Last week’s FVG was invalidated with a stop loss, yet the overall bias stays bullish.

EURUSD

Market Context: EURUSD continues to trade in a bullish structure, pressing against resistance at the upper boundary of a large counter-move FVG. Despite supply pressure, buyers maintain control, and the pair remains well-supported by broader momentum.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A breakout above resistance would confirm strength, opening the way for continuation into the next swing high and attracting further bullish flow.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Rejection from this level could trigger a pullback into the base of the FVG, where support would be tested. Such a move would not undermine the broader uptrend but would offer buyers new opportunities.

Setup: Last week’s FVG reached its target, validating the bullish outlook. With momentum intact, EURUSD stays positioned for additional upside opportunities.

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