Trading Week Ahead: Powell’s Speech & Non-Farm Payrolls on Deck

The first week of June brings a wave of high-impact US events that could shift market sentiment and rate expectations. With Fed signals, PMI data, and Non-Farm Payrolls on deck, traders should brace for volatility. Here are the top 3 events you need to watch:

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks
All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as he addresses the market during a critical phase for monetary policy. Any signals of increased openness toward rate cuts could trigger a dovish market reaction, weakening the US dollar and lifting risk assets. Conversely, a reaffirmed hawkish stance may strengthen the dollar, lift Treasury yields, and weigh on equities.

• ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI
The ISM reports will offer a timely gauge of business activity across the US economy. Manufacturing PMI is projected to rise modestly from 48.7 to 49.3, remaining below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. Services data will provide further insight into consumer-driven momentum. Surprises in either release could swiftly shift rate cut expectations and fuel volatility across USD pairs and equity indices.

• Non-Farm Payrolls
The headline labour report for May stands as the week’s key macro catalyst. Markets expect job creation to slow from 177,000 to 130,000, suggesting a potential cooling in labour market strength. A softer-than-expected print could revive dovish Fed bets and pressure the dollar, while an upside surprise may solidify the case for holding rates steady, boosting yields and the greenback.

*All times in the table are in GMT+2

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading technique employs the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) in combination with the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which identifies zones where price action advanced too rapidly, creating inefficiencies. Such gaps frequently represent areas of increased likelihood for trade entries and exits. The method is implemented on instruments such as EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD, providing insights into recent price movements and uncovering potential trading setups.

Last Week’s Opportunities

EURUSD

Market Context: EURUSD remains firmly in a long-term uptrend, with last week’s price action supporting that structure. A brief corrective move led to the formation of a short FVG, which is still active. Following the setup, the price dropped into the 20 EMA, where a strong bullish reaction reignited upward momentum.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The primary outlook favours a continued move toward the marked resistance zone. A full-bodied candle close above this level could open the way for a sweep of the yearly high.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A rejection at resistance could validate the ongoing short FVG, pushing price lower toward the highlighted swing low zone.

Setup: A short FVG setup formed last week and remains in play. No new FVG setup has formed this week.

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GBPJPY

Market Context: GBPJPY is currently trading above both the 20 and 50 EMAs, confirming a bullish market structure. A valid long FVG setup formed last week and remains in play, supporting the ongoing upward move.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Price holds the 20 EMA and nearby support zone, setting the path for a push towards the marked swing high and resistance level.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term dip below support could trigger a sweep of downside liquidity before any recovery.

Setup: A bullish FVG setup was confirmed last week and is still active. No new FVG setup has formed this week.

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XAUUSD

Market Context: Despite major macroeconomic events, gold spent last week in tight consolidation with no clear directional breakout. However, the price remains above both EMAs, maintaining a technically bullish outlook.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): As long as the price stays above the EMAs, a move to sweep the nearest swing highs remains the primary scenario.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A drop into the 50 EMA and support zone could unfold. If buyers fail to react there, further downside toward swing lows is on the table.

Setup: No FVG setups have formed this week or last week. The market remains directionally neutral short-term.

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US30

Market Context: Similar to gold, US30 lacked decisive movement last week, staying in a consolidation range. However, the bullish momentum remains intact as the price continues to hold above both EMAs.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Price continues its ascent and targets the highlighted liquidity zone, supported by structure and EMA alignment.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A reversal could lead to a sweep of recent swing lows before a potential continuation.

Setup: The previous short FVG setup was invalidated after price hit the stop-loss level. No new FVG has formed this week.

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