Trading Week Ahead: Powell’s Speech, Flash PMIs & Durable Goods

The week ahead could be a game-changer for USD traders, with three high-impact events poised to influence market direction. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech may set the tone for future policy direction, while Flash PMIs offer a real-time read on business activity. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders may expose either underlying weakness or surprising strength in the US manufacturing sector.

Let’s break down what’s on the radar and how each release may affect the dollar, Treasury yields, and broader risk sentiment.

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Markets will be laser-focused on Powell’s remarks for clues on forward guidance. A dovish tone may reignite risk appetite and pressure the dollar, while a more hawkish stance could lift yields and push the USD higher.

• US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
Scheduled for Thursday, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to ease slightly to 52.7 from 52.9, while the Services PMI may tick up to 53.0 from 52.9. Although both remain in expansion territory, any surprises could shift market expectations for Fed policy, sparking volatility across USD pairs and equities.

• Durable Goods Orders
Friday’s report might deliver the biggest shock. Economists project a -10.3% pullback following June’s unexpected 16.4% surge. A steep drop may signal weakening business investment momentum, strengthening the case for a more dovish monetary stance and weighing on the dollar.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Jul. 22	2:30 PM	USD	Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wednesday, Jul. 23	4:00 PM	USD	Existing Home Sales
Thursday, Jul. 24	10:00 AM	EUR	Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
	10:30 AM	GBP	Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
	2:15 PM	EUR	Monetary Policy Statement
	2:30 PM	CAD	Retail Sales
	2:30 PM	USD	Unemployment Claims
	2:45 PM	EUR	ECB Press Conference
	3:45 PM	USD	Flash Manufacturing, Services PMI
	4:00 PM	USD	New Home Sales
Friday, Jul. 25	8:00 AM	GBP	Retail Sales
Friday, Jul. 25	2:30 PM	USD	Durable Goods Orders

*All times in the table are in GMT+2

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading strategy uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to evaluate market trends and the Fair Value Gap (FVG) to identify areas of price imbalance. These imbalances, caused by rapid price movements, often indicate high-probability entry and exit points. This approach can be applied to currency pairs such as EURUSD and GBPJPY, as well as US30 and XAUUSD, and provides a review of recent price action and potential trading opportunities.

Weekly Market Outlook

EURUSD

Market Context: EURUSD continues to show signs of weakness after a strong prior rally. The pair is trading below the 20 EMA, indicating persistent bearish momentum, yet currently holding above a support zone aligned with a previous FVG, suggesting short-term indecision.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A breakdown below the current support could trigger a move toward the next liquidity zone, filling gaps left behind during the previous bullish move.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If the current support holds, buyers may target a sweep of the nearest swing high as sentiment stabilises.

Setup: No FVG setup formed this or last week. Market structure leans bearish.

GBPJPY

Market Context: GBPJPY remains in a strong uptrend, consistently printing higher highs without testing the 20 EMA. Despite a bearish open on Monday, price action stays bullish and technically intact.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The active FVG long setup from 8 July remains in play, with potential for further gains as price respects trend structure.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term dip to the 20 EMA could offer a re-entry point for buyers if support holds.

Setup: No new FVG setups formed this or last week. The 8 July FVG setup is active.

US30

Market Context: The Dow Jones index is trading within a defined range, reacting to both resistance and support. A recent lower low hints at potential bearish pressure building.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A full candle close below the 20 EMA and current support could initiate a downside move to fill liquidity gaps via untested FVGs.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A rejection at support and bullish continuation within the range could lead to a liquidity grab near the range highs.

Setup: No new FVG setup was formed this or last week. The FVG from 8 July reached its final target (support).

Last Week’s Opportunities

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold remains range-bound, consolidating as the market prepares for a larger directional move. Price action is currently neutral, with no clear breakout yet.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A breakout above resistance could lead to a liquidity sweep toward the marked swing high.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A candle close below both the 20 and 50 EMAs could prompt a move lower, targeting swing lows for liquidity.

Setup: A bearish FVG setup formed last week but was stopped out. No valid FVG setup was formed this week.

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