Trading Week Ahead: Is Gold (XAUUSD) Setting Up for a New All-Time High?

Markets are entering the week with a clear focus on monetary policy. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, nearly 87% of traders now anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Whether that conviction holds will largely depend on this week’s heavy data flow. With JOLTS job openings, ISM PMI releases, and the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls, investors should brace for sharp moves and elevated volatility.

• JOLTS Job Openings
Markets will be watching whether job openings cool further, with consensus at 7.24M versus 7.44M previously. A steeper drop would point to weakening labour demand, fuelling dovish Fed bets and pressuring the dollar. A stronger showing could revive inflation concerns and lift yields.

• ISM PMI
The manufacturing index is seen at 48.9, still signalling contraction, while services are expected at 50.5, just above the expansion line. Together, these reports will reveal whether momentum is returning to US business activity. Stronger readings could support the dollar and Treasury yields, while weaker results may encourage risk-taking in equities and commodities.

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
The NFP report remains the week’s market mover. Traders will look for confirmation of either cooling job growth or ongoing resilience. A softer number could drag the dollar lower and lift risk assets, while a robust print would likely cement the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance and send yields and the greenback higher.

*All times in the table are in GMT+2

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This strategy combines the use of the 20- and 50-period EMA to assess market direction alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG) to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, which emerge during sharp market moves, often highlight strong potential areas for trade entries and exits. The method is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD, offering insights into recent market behaviour and identifying possible trading setups.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold confirmed its seasonal August strength last week, breaking out of a multi-month range with strong bullish momentum. The move was reinforced by expectations of a potential rate cut in September, providing fundamental support to the rally.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): According to the FVG structure, a pullback into the recent FVG would offer buyers another entry, with the potential target set at an all-time high.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Cooling of the sharp rally cannot be ruled out. A dip towards support and the 20/50 EMAs would be natural, and for the bullish trend to continue, these zones should hold.

Setup: A tradable FVG setup is present this week, offering a structured opportunity in line with the prevailing bullish momentum.

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Weekly Market Outlook

EURUSD

Market Context: Last week, after a period of midweek indecision, EURUSD swept liquidity from two swing lows and reclaimed levels above the 20 and 50 EMAs. The pair has since maintained its bullish drive, with buyers holding control.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation of bullish momentum is expected, at least towards nearby resistance. On the way, liquidity above recent swing highs could be cleared, providing fuel for further upside.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A surprise reversal of the short-term trend could drive price back into support, where buyers would likely look to re-enter and defend the structure.

Setup: No new FVG setup has formed this or last week, leaving the trend to continue without fresh structural signals.

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GBPJPY

Market Context: GBPJPY remains trapped in a range with no decisive moves to confirm direction. The 20 and 50 EMAs are holding as support, suggesting buyers are defending key levels while liquidity accumulates above the range.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation higher is favoured, with price likely to test liquidity resting at the top of the range. EMAs confirming support strengthen this outlook.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): If the price breaks lower, sellers may target a deeper retracement into the untested FVG zone from the earlier strong bullish rally, with support as the key level to watch.

Setup: No valid FVG setup has formed this week due to ongoing indecision in the market.

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US30

Market Context: The US30 continues its rally with almost identical price action week over week. The market has been respecting the long FVG, reacting positively to demand and extending higher.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The primary expectation is a continuation towards new all-time highs, supported by persistent bullish structure and market sentiment.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term reversal may emerge if conditions become overheated, with price cooling before resuming the broader uptrend.

Setup: Last week’s FVG setup played out successfully, achieving a 2:1 RRR target. The trend remains constructive, with buyers firmly in control.