Trading Week Ahead: FOMC Minutes, US Jobless Claims & UK GDP to Watch

This week could spark significant market moves as three key events come into focus. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes may reveal a shift in sentiment within the Fed towards a more dovish stance. Thursday’s Unemployment Claims will test the resilience of the US labour market, while Friday’s UK GDP release will show whether the British economy is regaining momentum.

Each of these events carries the potential to move markets. Read the full article to stay one step ahead and prepare for the action.

• FOMC Minutes
Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will shed light on policymakers’ latest internal discussions. Investors will be parsing the language for dovish signals that could indicate growing support for rate cuts. A softening tone may weigh on the dollar and boost equities, while persistent caution could keep Treasury yields elevated and maintain dollar strength.

• Unemployment Claims
Thursday’s weekly jobless claims arrive at a crucial juncture, with markets expecting a modest rise from 233K to 235K. An upside surprise could signal a gradual cooling of the labour market, potentially strengthening the case for policy easing. Conversely, strong data would support the Fed’s current stance and dampen expectations of imminent rate cuts.

• UK GDP
Friday’s early morning GDP release will offer a timely snapshot of the UK’s economic trajectory. With recent data painting a mixed picture, traders will be watching closely for signs of renewed growth. A stronger-than-expected figure could lift the pound and trigger a hawkish reassessment of Bank of England expectations, while weaker data may reinforce the case for further stimulus.

*All times in the table are in GMT+2

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This strategy combines the use of the 20- and 50-period EMA to assess market direction alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG) to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, which emerge during sharp market moves, often highlight strong potential areas for trade entries and exits. The method is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD, offering insights into recent market behaviour and identifying possible trading setups.

Last Week’s Opportunities

EURUSD

Market Context: The pair stayed quiet most of last week but turned bearish toward the end. No new FVGs formed, and last week’s long FVG is still open. Price action now hints at downside pressure.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A drop into the next support zone is expected. If that level breaks, we could see a deeper move targeting lower liquidity and unfilled FVGs.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A bounce from support is possible, but without strong follow-through, any rally may be short-lived.

Setup: Focus remains on the downside. Last week’s long FVG may act as a magnet for a liquidity sweep before a potential reversal.

---

GBPJPY

Market Context: Despite holding above support and the 20 EMA, GBPJPY still sits inside a valid bearish FVG. No new FVGs this week, and price is showing signs of a pullback.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Short-term downside into the swing low and support area is likely. The active short FVG supports this move.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If support holds, we could see a bounce back into resistance, but sellers are expected to step in near recent highs.

Setup: The short FVG remains the key level. As long as the price stays below it, short opportunities toward support are favoured.

---

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold is testing last week’s FVG support zone, overlapping with the 50 EMA. The previous long setup was stopped out, confirming bearish intent.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A clean break below current levels opens the way to lower swing lows and resting liquidity.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A bounce off the 50 EMA is possible, but it’s seen as a reactionary move, not a trend change.

Setup: Momentum points down. Any retracement offers a chance to rejoin the bearish move on better risk-reward terms.

---

Opportunities to Watch This Week

US30

Market Context: The index continues its strong rally, pushing above resistance and showing no signs of slowing. Momentum remains bullish, and last week’s FVG is still valid until July 7.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): As long as the price stays above key support, the uptrend is expected to continue toward upper liquidity targets. Buyers remain in control, and any consolidation above resistance favours continuation.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A brief pullback into support is possible, especially if short-term exhaustion sets in—but this would likely present a new buying opportunity rather than a reversal.

Setup: The valid bullish FVG offers a clean continuation setup. As long as price respects support, longs targeting further upside remain attractive with a favourable risk-reward.

---

All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders. The information on this site is not directed at residents in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local laws or regulations. FTMO companies do not act as a broker and do not accept any deposits. The offered technical solution for the FTMO platforms and data feed is powered by liquidity providers.