Trading Week Ahead: Fed’s Last Move of the Year

A highly anticipated week lies ahead as the Federal Reserve prepares for its final rate decision of the year. With a potential cut from 4.00% to 3.75% on the table, alongside key labour and wage data, markets could see sharp moves across the dollar, yields, and equities.

Watch these three events that could reshape rate expectations and set the tone for the next year.

👉 FOMC Statement
The Fed is expected to lower rates to 3.75%. Market focus will be on guidance and Powell’s tone as traders assess the 2026 policy path.

👉 JOLTS Job Openings
Forecast at 7.2 million for October, unchanged from the previous print. A drop may signal weakening labour demand and support dovish bets.

👉 Employment Cost Index
Wage growth will be closely watched. A strong number could lift yields and the dollar, while a softer print

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Dec. 9	4:00 PM	USD	JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday, Dec. 10	2:30 PM	USD	Employment Cost Index
	3:45 PM	CAD	BOC Rate Statement
	8:00 PM	USD	FOMC Statement
	8:30 PM	USD	FOMC Press Conference
Friday, Dec. 12	8:00 AM	GBP	GDP
Friday, Dec. 12	8:00 AM	EUR	German CPI

*All times in the table are in GMT+1

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading approach leverages the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG) is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD and provides insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: Last week, EURUSD swept a key swing low and then entered a brief cooling phase. Price is now trading above the 20 EMA and resting near a local support zone, maintaining a bullish market structure.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The trend remains upward, supported by a valid bullish FVG. The setup targets a 2:1 RRR or the next higher swing high.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A decline toward the first support zone aligned with the 20 and 50 EMAs could unfold. If this zone fails to hold, a deeper drop is possible.

FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed last week and remains active.

GBPJPY

Market Context: GBPJPY showed strong bullish momentum last week, particularly after Monday’s sharp drop into support was quickly defended by buyers. Since then, price has been trending higher consistently.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): As long as the market structure holds above the initial support zone, the bullish trend is likely to continue.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term correction into support is possible, but so far, the market shows little sign of weakening.

FVG Setup: No FVG formed this week due to the steady nature of the upward move.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold remains in a broader bullish trend and has recently tested a key resistance zone near a previous swing high. Despite the presence of sellers, the market has shown resilience, maintaining an upward structure.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): If the resistance zone fails to cap the move, bullish momentum could accelerate, targeting a new all-time high. The active long FVG supports the upside outlook with a potential 2:1 RRR target.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A rejection from resistance and confirmation via a short FVG could trigger a pullback toward the next support zone.

FVG Setup: A long FVG formed earlier and remains valid, aligning with the preferred bullish scenario.

US30

Market Context: US30 has shown strong bullish momentum and is currently trading above the 20 EMA. Price is testing a resistance zone, and given the strength of the recent move, a breakout is likely.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A pullback into the long FVG followed by a move higher remains the core setup, with the potential to target the recent swing high.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Although momentum is strong, traders should be aware that the current level represents a significant resistance, where a market reaction remains possible.

FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed this week and is active, with a potential target of 2:1 RRR or the recent swing high.

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