Trading Week Ahead: Big Week for Traders

Markets brace for a data-packed week with major catalysts on deck. Key focus will be on JOLTS job openings, the FOMC statement, and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls. Each could tip the balance for Fed policy and spark sharp market moves. Read on for the full breakdown and what to watch.

• JOLTS Job Openings
Set for release on Tuesday, the JOLTS report is forecast to show 7.49 million openings, down from the previous 7.77 million. A continued decline would signal cooling labour demand, potentially reinforcing the Fed’s path toward easing. Stronger-than-expected numbers, on the other hand, could support a more cautious monetary stance.

• FOMC Statement
The July FOMC meeting is the week’s headline event. With the federal funds rate currently at 4.50% and no change expected, attention will turn to forward guidance. If policymakers signal readiness to ease policy in the coming months, risk assets could rally while the dollar weakens. A reaffirmed hawkish tone, however, may support Treasury yields and pressure equities.

• Non-Farm Payrolls
The US labour market will be tested again with Friday’s NFP release. Job creation is expected to slow to 108K in July, down from 147K previously. A softer figure could ignite dovish Fed bets, pushing the dollar lower and boosting equities. However, a surprise beat would challenge rate cut expectations and fuel USD strength and bond market repricing.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Jul. 29	4:00 PM	USD	JOLTS Job Openings
Tuesday, Jul. 29	4:00 PM	USD	CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Jul. 30	11:00 AM	EUR	GDP
	2:15 PM	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
	2:30 PM	USD	GDP
	3:45 PM	CAD	BOC Rate Statement
	4:00 PM	USD	Pending Home Sales
	4:30 PM	CAD	BOC Press Conference
	8:00 PM	USD	FOMC Statement
Thursday, Jul. 31	5:00 AM	JPY	BoJ Interest Rate Decision
	2:00 PM	EUR	German CPI
	2:30 PM	CAD	GDP
		USD	Core PCE Price Index
		USD	Unemployment Claims
Friday, Aug. 1	11:00 AM	EUR	CPI
	2:30 PM	USD	Unemployment Rate
	2:30 PM	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls
	4:00 PM	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices

*All times in the table are in GMT+2

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading approach leverages the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG) is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD and provides insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Last Week’s Opportunities

EURUSD

Market Context: Following a series of lower highs, the pair is now approaching key support formed by a prior Fair Value Gap (FVG). Momentum has slowed, and the market appears poised for either a bullish bounce or a structural breakdown.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A rebound from the FVG could lead to renewed upside, targeting the recent swing high.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the FVG would invalidate its role as support and expose the next downside liquidity zone.

FVG Setup: No new FVG has formed this week. Last week's setup was invalidated after failing to fill within three candles but still acts as a key support level.

GBPJPY

Market Context: With volume steadily increasing and price coiling near the upper boundary of its range, GBPJPY appears primed for a breakout. Seasonality data reveals August has historically been the most bearish month for this pair over the past two decades, adding weight to potential downside risks.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A defence of the FVG zone could lead to a sweep of range highs before any potential reversal unfolds.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Failure to hold above the FVG would confirm a structural shift to the downside, in line with seasonal pressure.

FVG Setup: No new FVG setups have formed this week or last.

US30

Market Context: Early-week gains triggered an overnight gap as bullish sentiment returned to the index. Technical structure remains supportive, and historical August performance suggests continued upward potential.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation of the trend could see price climb toward range highs, supported by momentum and seasonality.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A sustained break below the FVG may trigger a retracement toward the swing low and mark a shift in short-term sentiment.

FVG Setup: Last week's FVG setup is still in play and approaching its 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) target.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold came under heavy selling pressure mid-last week and is now stabilising near its 50-day EMA. This dynamic support zone could play a pivotal role in determining whether bears remain in control or a short-term retracement unfolds.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation lower from current levels may drive price into key liquidity zones below, extending the prevailing downtrend.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A bounce from the EMA 50 could trigger a retracement into the nearby FVG zone, where sellers may look to re-establish control and defend resistance.

FVG Setup: A new bearish FVG formed this week, supporting the current downside narrative.

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