Trading Week Ahead: Will Core PCE and JOLTS Data Tilt the Fed’s Path?

Key US data releases this week, including inflation, factory activity and labour demand, could reshape market expectations around the Fed’s next move.
Here's what traders need to know.

👉 Core PCE Price Index
The Fed’s go-to inflation metric will take centre stage at the end of the week. With inflation pressures still sticky, any upside surprise could delay the policy pivot, lifting the US dollar and Treasury yields. A softer-than-expected figure would support dovish sentiment and boost risk assets like tech and gold.

👉 ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices
The November PMI is projected to tick up from 48.7 to 49.0, still shy of the expansion threshold, while prices are expected to rise from 58.0 to 59.5. A stronger-than-expected report may signal lingering cost pressures, reinforcing rate-hike caution and fuelling USD strength. Weak data, on the other hand, could weigh on yields and favour growth stocks.

👉 JOLTS Job Openings
The last job openings stood at 7.227 million. Any significant drop in this figure could highlight softening labour demand, increasing market bets on earlier Fed rate cuts in 2026. A stable or rising number may reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative, strengthening the greenback.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Monday, Dec. 1	4:00 PM	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices
Tuesday, Dec. 2	2:00 AM	USD	Fed Chair Powell Speaks
	11:00 AM	EUR	CPI
	4:00 PM	USD	JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday, Dec. 3	2:15 PM	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
	4:00 PM	USD	ISM Services PMI
Friday, Dec. 5	11:00 AM	EUR	GDP
	2:30 PM	CAD	Employment Change
	4:00 PM	USD	Core PCE Price Index
		USD	Prelim UoM Consumer, Inflation Expectations

*All times in the table are in GMT+1

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading approach leverages the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG) is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD and provides insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: Following a successful test of support and a confirmed shift in structure, EURUSD continues to trend higher. The pair is currently trading above the 20 and 50 EMAs, aiming for the previous swing high.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Sustained bullish momentum with a move toward the swing high remains the favoured outlook.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A loss of momentum could lead to a pullback and potential retest of the recent support zone.

FVG Setup: No fair value gap formed this week.

GBPJPY

Market Context: After reaching a multi-month high, GBPJPY is showing early signs of weakening. Price is now testing the first support level, which needs to hold for the uptrend to remain intact.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A bounce from current support would support continued bullish momentum.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A close below support could lead to a deeper correction toward the 20 and 50 EMAs.

FVG Setup: No FVG was formed this week.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold tapped into the swing high at resistance today, where a reaction from sellers is likely.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A short setup becomes valid if a short FVG forms and confirms rejection from the resistance zone.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): Failure to react at resistance would invalidate the zone and open the path toward all-time highs.

FVG Setup: No FVG has formed this week yet.

US30

Market Context: US30 has gained strong bullish momentum and is approaching a key resistance level.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A pullback into the newly formed long FVG followed by a continuation toward resistance remains the main setup.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A close below support would shift bias and open the door for a move toward the next lower support area.

FVG Setup: A long FVG formed this week and remains valid, offering a 2:1 risk-to-reward potential.

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