Trading Week Ahead: Three Events That Could Change Everything

Markets are heading into a data-heavy week with three major US releases that could reshape the Fed narrative going into 2026. November’s Retail Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls, and CPI will test the resilience of consumer demand, the labour market, and inflation pressures.

Stay ahead as the market prepares for its final move of the year.

👉 US Retail Sales – October sales are expected to match the prior 0.2% rise, reflecting steady but unspectacular consumer momentum. A stronger print could revive optimism around growth resilience, lifting the dollar and weighing on rate-cut expectations. Conversely, a miss may spark USD softness and boost risk appetite.

👉 Nonfarm Payrolls – Following a 119K increase in October, November’s job report will be key for gauging labour market momentum. Softer data could fuel dovish Fed pricing and pressure the dollar, while a solid upside surprise would support delaying rate cuts and boost yields.

👉 US CPI – October inflation printed at 0.3% month-on-month. November’s CPI will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s 2026 outlook. A hotter reading may strengthen the dollar and lift yields, while cooler data would support risk assets and revive dovish market sentiment.

15/12/25

Time

14:30

Instrument

CAD

Event
CPI

16/12/25

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
Claimant Count Change

Time

09:30

Instrument

EUR

Event
German PMI

Time

10:30

Instrument

GBP

Event
Flash PMI

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
Average Hourly Earnings

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
Retail Sales

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
Nonfarm Payrolls

Time

15:45

Instrument

USD

Event
Flash PMI

17/12/25

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
CPI

Time

11:00

Instrument

EUR

Event
CPI

18/12/25

Time

13:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
Official Bank Rate

Time

14:15

Instrument

EUR

Event
Main Refinancing Rate

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
CPI

19/12/25

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
Retail Sales

Time

08:00

Instrument

EUR

Event
German PPI

Time

16:00

Instrument

USD

Event
Existing Home Sales

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
15/12/25	14:30	CAD	CPI
16/12/25	08:00	GBP	Claimant Count Change
	09:30	EUR	German PMI
	10:30	GBP	Flash PMI
	14:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings
		USD	Retail Sales
		USD	Nonfarm Payrolls
	15:45	USD	Flash PMI
17/12/25	08:00	GBP	CPI
	11:00	EUR	CPI
18/12/25	13:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate
	14:15	EUR	Main Refinancing Rate
	14:30	USD	CPI
19/12/25	08:00	GBP	Retail Sales
		EUR	German PPI
	16:00	USD	Existing Home Sales

*All times in the table are in GMT+1

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading approach leverages the 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG) is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD and provides insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: Last Monday, EURUSD perfectly held last week’s support level and launched sharply higher from that zone. Price is now trading between resistance and support, showing strong momentum.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A pullback into the edge of the fair value gap followed by a continuation higher, targeting a 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A deeper retracement could unfold to fill liquidity left behind by the aggressive move, potentially taking price back into the support zone.

FVG Setup: A bullish FVG has formed and remains active, with a potential 2:1 RRR target.

GBPJPY

Market Context: After several weeks of gains, GBPJPY is now correcting into a key support zone. This level is crucial for maintaining the current bullish structure.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A bounce from support and continuation of the uptrend remain the base case, assuming the zone holds.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below support would signal a clear shift to bearish structure.

FVG Setup: No FVG formed on the higher timeframes, but potential setups may be found on lower timeframes near support.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold is once again on track to challenge new all-time highs, supported by ongoing bullish momentum.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A pullback into the FVG followed by a continuation to new highs remains the favoured scenario, with a potential 2:1 RRR or a breakout to fresh all-time highs.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A deeper pullback into the support zone is possible. If that support fails, the market could explore lower levels before resuming the trend.

FVG Setup: A long FVG has formed and remains valid, with targets set at 2:1 RRR or new all-time highs.

US30

Market Context: US30 reached a new all-time high last week, followed by a slight cooldown on Friday. Despite the pause, the bullish structure remains strong.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation higher from the current zone or from the FVG, aiming for another all-time high.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A pullback into support with a close below it would weaken the structure and could open the path for further downside.

FVG Setup: A long FVG has formed and is currently active, with a target toward a new ATH.

All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis, or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders.