Trading Week Ahead: Geopolitical Volatility

Geopolitical tensions continue to drive volatility across energy and safe-haven assets. This week, the focus shifts to whether a cooling US economy can justify a dovish Fed stance. With US CPI, PCE and JOLTS data ahead, traders are bracing for sharp moves across the dollar and the yield curve.

👉 US CPI

Headline MoM inflation is forecast to cool to 0.2% from a previous 0.3% rise. A hot print forces hawkish repricing and crushes duration, while a surprise miss could lift equities and weigh on the dollar.

👉 US Core PCE

The Fed’s primary inflation gauge is forecast unchanged at 0.4% MoM. Any deviation will reset the yield curve and USD pairs instantly. A hotter print bolsters the higher-for-longer narrative and caps risk-on sentiment.

👉 JOLTS Job Openings

Labour demand remains a wildcard, with vacancies forecast to rebound to 6.840M from 6.542M. A cooling figure shifts the equity bias toward recession risk, whereas a resilient print keeps the greenback supported.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Mar. 10	00:50 AM	JPY	Final GDP
Wednesday, Mar. 11	08:00 AM	EUR	German CPI
	01:30 PM	USD	US CPI
Thursday, Mar. 12	USD	Unemployment Claims
Friday, Mar. 13	08:00 AM	GBP	UK GDP
	01:30 PM	CAD	Unemployment Rate
		USD	US Core PCE
		USD	US GDP
	03:00 PM	USD	JOLTS Job Openings

*All times in the table are in GMT+1

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: Following last week's sharp sell-off, EURUSD reached a major support zone. However, Monday's open below this critical level suggests that the prevailing bearish trend remains dominant, overshadowing the likelihood of an immediate recovery. The market structure continues to favour sellers.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The primary outlook favours a continuation of the short trend. The ideal setup involves a corrective retracement to test FVG before continuing downward. The potential target is the next support zone, which contains several swing lows that act as a high-probability liquidity pool for the market.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close above the broken support level would invalidate the immediate bearish thesis. This structural shift would indicate a failed breakdown and a potential reversal toward higher resistance levels.

FVG Setup: A bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed during Wednesday's session. Traders can look to execute short positions upon a retest of this inefficiency, targeting the lower support zone for 3.8 RRR.

GBPJPY

Market Context: The pound reacted positively to a key support zone last week, subsequently driving toward resistance. The pair is currently trading above both the 20- and 50-period EMAs. This positioning, coupled with the strong bounce from support, highlights a clear advantage for buyers.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred outlook is a bullish continuation into the upper liquidity and resistance zone. Price action at this upper boundary will likely dictate the next major move.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): If buyers fail to sustain the current momentum, the pair may experience a reversion back toward the underlying support zone to sweep resting liquidity.

FVG Setup: No FVG setup was created.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold is currently exhibiting technical indecision. Despite the presence of a bearish FVG, price action continues to hold firmly above the support level. This conflict between a bearish FVG and intact structural support requires patience for a clear breakout.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred bias leans short, aligned with the recent FVG. However, to validate this setup and confirm seller control, traders should wait for a decisive daily close below the current support level before committing to short positions.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If support holds, a rally toward resistance is likely. A successful breakout above this resistance could drive the asset back toward its all-time high (ATH).

FVG Setup: A new bearish FVG is active, but execution requires a confirmed break of support to be viable. (Note: The previous bullish FVG setup on gold successfully reached its target 2:1 RRR).

US100

Market Context: The US100 is trading significantly below both the 20 and 50 EMAs, confirming a clear bearish market structure. Monday's session opened with a substantial gap down from last week's close, highlighting sustained and heavy selling pressure.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario involves a partial or full rally to fill the opening gap near last week's close. This area is expected to act as strong resistance, providing sellers an opportunity to re-enter the market and drive the index toward new local lows.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A recovery and subsequent close above the 20 and 50 EMAs would signal at least a short-term shift in trend, invalidating the immediate bearish bias.

FVG Setup: While no FVG formed, the opening gap serves as the primary market inefficiency and the key structural reference point for trade entries.

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