Trading Week Ahead: Fed Rates & Big Tech Earnings
Markets are bracing for a blockbuster week of central bank decisions and mega-cap earnings. With Brent crude above $100, the Fed and ECB are widely expected to hold rates steady, making their forward guidance critical. The Bank of Japan also takes centre stage as markets watch for a hawkish pivot on its 0.75% rate amid energy-driven inflation. On the corporate front, Verizon kicks off Q1 earnings, but the spotlight remains on Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Wall Street will intensely dissect their massive AI capital expenditures as the global AI race accelerates.
Brace for this week's three key macro events:
👉 US Fed Interest Rate Decision – 20:00, Wednesday (CEST)
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.75%. However, with oil prices rising, traders will heavily parse the accompanying statement for any hawkish shifts regarding the inflation outlook and future rate paths.
👉 EU Main Refinancing Rate – 14:15, Thursday (CEST)
The European Central Bank is forecast to keep its rates unchanged at 2.15%. Following recent comments from ECB officials prioritising caution amid the Middle East conflict, markets will be looking for clues on whether the anticipated June and September hikes are still on the table.
👉 US PCE Price Index – 14:30, Thursday (CEST)
As the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, this print is the standout data release of the week. An upside surprise, fuelled by the recent energy shock, could severely dent rate-cut hopes and trigger significant volatility across dollar crosses and equities.
Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Tuesday, Apr. 28
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Apr. 29
CPI
German CPI
BoC Interest Rate Decision
Fed Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, Apr. 30
German GDP
CPI
GDP
BoE Interest Rate Decision
ECB Interest Rate Decision
GDP
PCE Price Index
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to BTCUSD, EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
BTCUSD
Market Context: Following the harsh late-February flush below $65,000 and several weeks of accumulation, Bitcoin is regaining strong bullish momentum. It is currently trading above both EMAs and has broken through multiple resistance levels, clearly signalling a bullish market structure.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continuation of this upward momentum, targeting the weekly swing low resistance (blue line), where price action may temporarily stall. If Bitcoin breaks this level and continues to hold daily supports, it could rally into the upper weekly resistance zone, which will dictate the asset's next major macro direction.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current support zone. This structural failure would signal a potential drop all the way down to the lower weekly support zone.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week. If a bullish FVG occurs, a long entry aligning with the preferred scenario is worth considering.
EURUSD
Market Context: Following a brief pullback, the euro reacted positively to the 20 and 50 EMAs, maintaining its overall bullish structure.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a long continuation aiming to sweep the upper swing high.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A drop to sweep the lower swing low. If the price fails to react to this swing low as support, expect a further decline directly into the primary support zone.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week due to a lack of aggressive, displaced price movement.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The pound reacted positively to last week's marked support level and continues its strong bullish momentum above both EMAs.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continuation of the bullish move, targeting the marked overhead high.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective pullback into the support zone to gather liquidity for a potential long. However, a daily close below this support would invalidate the long thesis and signal a clear structural shift to bearish.
FVG Setup: No FVG formed on the daily chart this week. Traders can drop down to lower timeframes to hunt for FVG setups that align with the preferred bullish scenario.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold did not make any significant directional moves last week, remaining largely consolidative but leaning towards a bullish structure.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario remains a long continuation into the nearest overhead resistance level.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A definitive daily close below the support zone. This would invalidate the active FVG and trigger a shift in market structure.
FVG Setup: No new FVG setup formed this week. However, the initial long FVG formed after the previous sharp drop remains active and in play, with the potential target marked on the chart.
US100
Market Context: The Nasdaq is currently sitting at an absolute all-time high. The recent upward trajectory has been incredibly aggressive, leaving behind numerous unfilled gaps in price action.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The bias remains strongly bullish. This scenario stays valid and active as long as the price does not close below the first marked support level.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A short-term market cooling, featuring a corrective pullback down to the underlying support zone to rebalance recent aggressive movements.
FVG Setup: No FVG setup formed this week.
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