Trading Week Ahead: Flash PMIs in Focus

Middle East peace hopes have collapsed after US forces seized an Iranian tanker. In retaliation, Tehran claims to have closed the Strait of Hormuz once again, triggering extreme volatility across global energy markets. With risk appetite fading, the spotlight shifts to Q1 earnings from heavyweights like Cleveland-Cliffs and the next leg of the AI race as SK Hynix advances memory production for Nvidia.

Brace for this week’s three key macro events:

👉 US Retail Sales

Forecast to accelerate sharply to 1.4% (prev. 0.6%), this is a critical read on consumer spending strength. A soft print falling short of these high expectations will drag the dollar and fuel aggressive rate cut bets.

👉 EUR Flash PMIs

The primary Eurozone growth gauge is driving the European Central Bank’s next policy move. Markets are bracing for a slip into contraction for the services sector (forecast 49.8 vs. prev. 50.2), alongside a slowdown in manufacturing (forecast 50.7 vs. prev. 51.5).

👉 US Flash PMIs

The standout macro event of the week. Traders will aggressively parse the data to see if the crucial services sector can claw its way back into expansion territory (forecast 50.1 vs. prev. 49.8). A weak print missing this threshold is virtually guaranteed to spike market volatility.

20/04/26

Time

14:30

Instrument

CAD

Event
CPI

21/04/26

Time

00:45

Instrument

NZD

Event
CP

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
Claimant Count Change

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
Retail Sales

22/04/26

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
CPI

23/04/26

Time

10:00

Instrument

EUR

Event
Eurozone Flash PMI

Time

10:30

Instrument

GBP

Event
Flash PMI

Time

15:45

Instrument

USD

Event
Flash PMI

24/04/26

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
Retail Sales

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
20/04/26	14:30	CAD	CPI
21/04/26	00:45	NZD	CP
	08:00	GBP	Claimant Count Change
	14:30	USD	Retail Sales
22/04/26	08:00	GBP	CPI
23/04/26	10:00	EUR	Eurozone Flash PMI
	10:30	GBP	Flash PMI
	15:45	USD	Flash PMI
24/04/26	08:00	GBP	Retail Sales

*All times in the table are in CEST

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: The Euro perfectly hit the 2:1 RRR target from last week and has now reached a major resistance level, where the price is beginning to show signs of a reversal.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Although the broader market remains in a bullish trend, the preferred scenario is a short-term drop, provided the current resistance holds. The potential target for this move is a decline all the way down to the lower support zone.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A definitive daily close above the resistance level. This would invalidate the rejection and signal a continuation of the upward trend.

FVG Setup: No new FVG setup has formed this week. However, last week’s short setup played out perfectly, successfully securing its 2:1 RRR target.

GBPJPY

Market Context: The price is currently sitting at highs not seen since late last year. Following this massive rally, the pair is now reacting to its first major support zone.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is for this support zone to hold firmly, leading to a continuation of the bullish trend.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the support level. This would trigger a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish, with the next lower support zone acting as the potential downside target.

FVG Setup: No FVG has formed yet this week. The market is waiting for a clear reaction at the support zone. If the support holds and a new bullish FVG forms in the direction of the trend, a long entry can be executed.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold continues to rise steadily following its recent sharp sell-off. This upward momentum is heavily supported by the conflict in the Middle East, which is creating widespread market uncertainty and driving investors into safe-haven assets.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): 

The preferred scenario is a continued rally directly into the overhead resistance. This outlook is supported by the formation of a new long FVG, which clearly indicates that buyers maintain an aggressive advantage in the market.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current support level would signal a structural shift. However, as long as the price defends this support, the bullish trend remains fully intact.

FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed last week and has already been successfully tested. Additionally, the previous FVG trade remains in progress, with a potential target aimed at the overhead resistance level.

US100

Market Context: The market is in an extremely strong bullish trend. The index is currently sitting at all-time highs (ATH) and appears highly resilient to selling pressure.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continuation of the rally, bouncing from the most recently formed long FVG to push into price discovery.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Strict caution is advised. Historically, extreme parabolic rallies can be followed by very fast and deep corrections – similar to the sharp drops witnessed in gold earlier this year.

FVG Setup: A trend-following bullish FVG has formed and offers a potential 2:1 RRR target. However, because the asset is trading at an ATH, it is highly recommended to exercise caution and utilise strict risk management.