Trading Week Ahead: Flash PMIs in Focus
Middle East peace hopes have collapsed after US forces seized an Iranian tanker. In retaliation, Tehran claims to have closed the Strait of Hormuz once again, triggering extreme volatility across global energy markets. With risk appetite fading, the spotlight shifts to Q1 earnings from heavyweights like Cleveland-Cliffs and the next leg of the AI race as SK Hynix advances memory production for Nvidia.
Brace for this week's three key macro events:
👉 US Retail Sales
Forecast to accelerate sharply to 1.4% (prev. 0.6%), this is a critical read on consumer spending strength. A soft print falling short of these high expectations will drag the dollar and fuel aggressive rate cut bets.
👉 EUR Flash PMIs
The primary Eurozone growth gauge is driving the European Central Bank's next policy move. Markets are bracing for a slip into contraction for the services sector (forecast 49.8 vs. prev. 50.2), alongside a slowdown in manufacturing (forecast 50.7 vs. prev. 51.5).
👉 US Flash PMIs
The standout macro event of the week. Traders will aggressively parse the data to see if the crucial services sector can claw its way back into expansion territory (forecast 50.1 vs. prev. 49.8). A weak print missing this threshold is virtually guaranteed to spike market volatility.
Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Monday, Apr. 20
CPI
Tuesday, Apr. 21
CP
Claimant Count Change
Retail Sales
Wednesday, Apr. 22
CPI
Thursday, Apr. 23
Eurozone Flash PMI
Flash PMI
Flash PMI
Friday, Apr. 24
Retail Sales
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The Euro perfectly hit the 2:1 RRR target from last week and has now reached a major resistance level, where the price is beginning to show signs of a reversal.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Although the broader market remains in a bullish trend, the preferred scenario is a short-term drop, provided the current resistance holds. The potential target for this move is a decline all the way down to the lower support zone.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A definitive daily close above the resistance level. This would invalidate the rejection and signal a continuation of the upward trend.
FVG Setup: No new FVG setup has formed this week. However, last week’s short setup played out perfectly, successfully securing its 2:1 RRR target.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The price is currently sitting at highs not seen since late last year. Following this massive rally, the pair is now reacting to its first major support zone.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is for this support zone to hold firmly, leading to a continuation of the bullish trend.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the support level. This would trigger a shift in market structure from bullish to bearish, with the next lower support zone acting as the potential downside target.
FVG Setup: No FVG has formed yet this week. The market is waiting for a clear reaction at the support zone. If the support holds and a new bullish FVG forms in the direction of the trend, a long entry can be executed.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold continues to rise steadily following its recent sharp sell-off. This upward momentum is heavily supported by the conflict in the Middle East, which is creating widespread market uncertainty and driving investors into safe-haven assets.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred):
The preferred scenario is a continued rally directly into the overhead resistance. This outlook is supported by the formation of a new long FVG, which clearly indicates that buyers maintain an aggressive advantage in the market.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close below the current support level would signal a structural shift. However, as long as the price defends this support, the bullish trend remains fully intact.
FVG Setup: A bullish FVG formed last week and has already been successfully tested. Additionally, the previous FVG trade remains in progress, with a potential target aimed at the overhead resistance level.
US100
Market Context: The market is in an extremely strong bullish trend. The index is currently sitting at all-time highs (ATH) and appears highly resilient to selling pressure.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is a continuation of the rally, bouncing from the most recently formed long FVG to push into price discovery.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): Strict caution is advised. Historically, extreme parabolic rallies can be followed by very fast and deep corrections – similar to the sharp drops witnessed in gold earlier this year.
FVG Setup: A trend-following bullish FVG has formed and offers a potential 2:1 RRR target. However, because the asset is trading at an ATH, it is highly recommended to exercise caution and utilise strict risk management.
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