Trading Week Ahead: Peace Talks Fail Ahead of US PPI and EUR CPI
A temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East is already unravelling. Following failed peace talks in Pakistan, the US has launched an immediate naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, instantly pushing Brent crude higher back near $100 a barrel.
With markets pricing in a renewed stagflation threat, the Q1 earnings season kicks off. Reports from Goldman Sachs and LVMH will offer the first evidence of how this ongoing energy shock is hitting corporate deal-making and global consumer demand.
To navigate this highly volatile environment, keep a close eye on the week's three most significant macro events:
👉 US PPI
As a leading gauge for wholesale inflation, this print is forecast to surge to 1.2% from a previous 0.7%. Given the recent explosion in energy costs, traders will parse this data. An upside surprise will further entrench stagflation fears, underpin the dollar, and keep the Federal Reserve pinned in a hawkish stance.
👉 GBP GDP
This primary growth metric will ultimately define the Bank of England's near-term interest rate path. A resilient figure provides the BoE with the runway to maintain restrictive policy, offering support to the pound. Conversely, a sharp contraction will accelerate dovish repricing and trigger risk-off flows out of sterling.
👉 EUR CPI
While the broad Eurozone inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged, the recent return of $100 oil ensures this release will be heavily scrutinised. A hotter-than-expected print traps the European Central Bank in a severe stagflationary dilemma, virtually guaranteeing a spike in volatility across euro crosses.
Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Monday, Apr. 13
Existing Home Sales
Tuesday, Apr. 14
PPI
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Wednesday, Apr. 15
ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Thursday, Apr. 16
Unemployment Rate
GDP
CPI
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
*All times in the table are in CEST
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The Euro is continuing to follow last week's preferred scenario. It is currently exhibiting strong bullish momentum, trading above both the 20 and 50 EMAs, and is now sitting just below overhead resistance.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): A continuation of the upward move directly into the resistance zone. This lines up with the remaining potential target from last week and is further supported by the previous weekly high, resting just below this area, acting as a magnet for price.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A corrective pullback down to the nearest support. The overall market structure remains firmly bullish; only consider changing the bias if the daily candle closes below this support floor.
FVG Setup: Last week's FVG is still running and playing out nicely, continuing toward its potential 2:1 RRR target.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The GBPJPY is in a very strong uptrend. It recently closed above its major resistance level, providing clear structural confirmation that buyers are entirely in control.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The ideal play is to wait for a corrective pullback into the most recently formed FVG. From there, it is expected a long continuation, targeting the unreached marked swing high or a standard 2:1 RRR.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): If the price breaks down and definitively closes below the new support floor, it would signal a shift in market structure. This could trigger a deeper drop into the next lower support zone.
FVG Setup: A new bullish FVG has formed. Taking a long entry here aligns perfectly with preferred bullish scenario and targets.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold opened significantly lower than Friday's close, primarily driven by weekend news regarding the breakdown of long-term peace talks with Iran. Despite this aggressive gap down, the broader market structure remains firmly bullish.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Primary bias remains long. Absorption of the opening gap and continuing its upward trajectory toward the overhead resistance zone is expected.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A deeper, sustained retracement back down to retest the underlying support floor before making its next major move.
FVG Setup: The previously established FVG is still active and in progress, maintaining a 1.70 RRR target.
US100
Market Context: The US100 successfully swept the first marked upside liquidity pool and is continuing its aggressive bullish climb without showing signs of slowing down.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The outlook remains decisively long. The next primary objective is a continuation push to sweep the next marked swing high.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A temporary corrective pullback dropping down into the underlying support zone to gather more buyers before continuing higher.
FVG Setup: While a new bullish FVG has technically formed, the required stop loss would be far too wide for proper risk management. It is highly recommended to stay patient and wait for a tighter, cleaner FVG to form in the direction of the trend before executing.
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