Trading Week Ahead: FOMC Week is Here!
Conflicting signals out of the Middle East are driving extreme volatility as potential ceasefire negotiations clash with fresh military ultimatums.
Traders are bracing for a massive week where crucial US inflation data collides with frontline financial reports from heavyweights like Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands, offering the first hard evidence of how surging oil prices are squeezing corporate margins and consumer demand.
👉 US CPI
The standout macro event. Traders will scrutinise the March reading for the initial inflationary effects of the Middle East conflict and surging fuel costs. A hot print validates the higher-for-longer rate narrative and bolsters the dollar.
👉 FOMC Meeting Minutes
Markets will aggressively parse these internal discussions for clues on the Fed's policy trajectory and how officials plan to navigate the stagflationary risks triggered by the ongoing energy shock.
👉 US Core PCE
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge provides a critical baseline for underlying US inflation before the war took hold. An unexpected upside surprise will instantly reprice the yield curve, support the dollar, and reinforce a hawkish outlook.
Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Tuesday, Apr. 7
Durable Goods Orders
Wednesday, Apr. 8
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, Apr. 9
Core PCE Price Index
GDP
Friday, Apr. 10
German CPI
Unemployment Rate
CPI
*All times in the table are in GMT+2
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The price remains below both the 20 and 50 EMAs, maintaining a broadly bearish market structure. However, a long FVG formed last Wednesday, providing an early signal that buyers are beginning to step back into the market following a period of accumulation. The pair is currently holding at support.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): As long as the current support level holds, the preferred outlook anticipates the price surging upward to break above both EMAs. The primary targets for this move are the marked overhead liquidity pools and the main resistance zone.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A definitive daily close below the support would completely invalidate the bullish recovery thesis. This would confirm that sellers remain in control and signal a further continuation of the downward trend.
FVG Setup: The bullish FVG that formed on Wednesday is currently active and in play. The immediate objective for this setup is a standard 2:1 RRR, with the potential to leave a runner open.
GBPJPY
Market Context: Following a sharp drop, the pair stalled and entered a consolidation phase. The initial sell-off left behind a short FVG. Friday's session managed to close above the lower boundary of this FVG, indicating early signs of returning bullish momentum and a potential shift in short-term direction.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred bias is a long position targeting the upper boundary of the FVG, which perfectly aligns with the beginning of the overhead resistance zone.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): If the price fails to sustain its upward push and drops back into the previous consolidation range, it would signal a failed breakout and likely trigger a continuation of the bearish move.
FVG Setup: No clear daily FVG has formed recently. Traders can instead drop down to lower timeframes to look for bullish FVG setups that align with the preferred scenario.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Playing out last week's scenario perfectly, Gold successfully bounced off the lower weekly support zone and is currently driving upward. Because the previous drop was so steep and aggressive, it left very little structural resistance behind, making the path of least resistance clearly to the upside.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The primary expectation is a bullish move directly into the first major resistance zone, taking advantage of the clean price action left by the previous sell-off.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A close below the support zone would instantly invalidate the bullish thesis. This structural failure would indicate a potential drop all the way back down to retest the deeper weekly support.
FVG Setup: A long FVG was created on Wednesday. After a successful retest of the support level, the trade is currently trading around break-even, aiming for a potential 1.70 RRR target.
US100
Market Context: The US100 has shifted its market structure back to bullish. The index closed above its resistance (rendering it invalid) and subsequently printed a long FVG. Price cleanly tested this gap before shooting up to the next major resistance level, where sellers are currently attempting to hold the line.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred outlook anticipates a daily close above the current resistance. Breaking this level opens the door for a strong push to sweep the first marked pool of upside liquidity.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A rejection at the current resistance could force a pullback down to the underlying support zone. The market's next major directional move will be decided based on how price action behaves at that support zone.
FVG Setup: While the short FVG from two weeks ago resulted in a stop loss, the market smoothly shifted its structure and offered a new long FVG. The price respected this new bullish zone and is currently playing out the preferred upward trajectory perfectly.
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