Trading Week Ahead: Restricted Oil Flows Push EU Inflation to 2.5%
With the Strait of Hormuz closed and Brent crude holding above $100, markets are pricing in prolonged reduced oil supplies. Surging oil has already pushed Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, trapping central banks in a severe stagflationary dilemma. Against this volatile backdrop, focus shifts entirely to the US, where critical updates on consumer spending, manufacturing, and the labour market will test the economy's underlying resilience.
👉 US Retail Sales
Consumer spending is forecast to rebound to 0.4% following a previous -0.2% contraction. A strong print reinforces economic resilience and supports the dollar, while another miss could accelerate dovish repricing and weigh heavily on the greenback.
👉 US ISM Manufacturing PMI
As a leading growth metric, this index provides vital insight into the broader economy. Any significant weakness will likely spark a strong bid for duration in bond markets, whereas a robust reading could cap yields and support a risk-on shift in equities.
👉 US Nonfarm Payrolls
The event of the week. Job creation is expected to recover to a modest 56,000 after a sharp contraction of -92,000 previously. A solid beat will push back against recession fears and lift yields, while another negative reading could trigger severe risk-off flows across all major asset classes.
Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Tuesday, Mar. 31
GDP
JOLTS Job Openings
CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, Apr. 1
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Retail Sales
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Friday, Apr. 3
Average Hourly Earnings
Nonfarm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
*All times in the table are in GMT+2
Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy
This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.
Opportunities to Watch This Week
EURUSD
Market Context: The price hit resistance, and sellers quickly pushed it back down to support, exactly as expected. It is now sitting directly on support, but it hasn't yet grabbed the liquidity resting just below it.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A small bounce is expected up to the nearest resistance and FVG. From there, sellers should step back in and push the price lower, continuing the overall downtrend.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If the price dips to grab lower liquidity and then sharply rallies to close above resistance, the downtrend is over. This would signal a shift in market structure.
FVG Setup: A new FVG has formed. The first potential target is a 2:1 RRR. If you aim lower for the bottom of the support zone, make sure to place your stop loss safely above the recent swing high to give the trade room to breathe.
GBPJPY
Market Context: The GBPJPY held its resistance level and dropped hard on Monday. It broke below both EMAs and swept the lower liquidity. Sellers are clearly in control right now.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The price is expected to keep dropping straight into the next major support zone.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): After such a massive drop, the price might suddenly bounce back up. This can happen when early sellers take their profits and late sellers get trapped.
FVG Setup: No FVG has formed yet this week. However, keep a close eye on Tuesday's close, as a new short FVG might appear.
XAUUSD
Market Context: Gold hasn't made any big moves yet this week. It is resting heavily on major support, quietly building up liquidity for its next big move.
Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The main outlook is bullish. A bounce to rebalance the market and fill the empty gaps left by the recent big drop might be expected.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative): If the daily candle closes below the current support level, it would invalidate the bullish scenario. This would be a clear signal that the price will likely keep falling.
FVG Setup: No FVGs have formed this week because the price has mostly been moving sideways.
US100
Market Context: The US100 is in a steep and aggressive daily downtrend. Sellers are fully in charge and are smoothly pushing the price lower without much fight from buyers.
Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred scenario is to wait for a pullback from short FVG with a potential 2:1 RRR target. You can also hold a partial position to see if it reaches the deeper weekly support below.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If the price closes above the immediate resistance, it might rally higher to fill upper gaps. It would likely climb to the next major resistance level before sellers step back in to resume the downtrend.
FVG Setup: An active short FVG is ready for the next move lower. Selling in this zone perfectly matches the overall daily downtrend.
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