Trading Week Ahead: Geopolitical Risks, PMIs and UK Retail Sales

Ongoing geopolitical tensions have reignited fears over a potential rise in inflation, while corporate earnings keep Carnival Corp's unhedged fuel exposure and GameStop's quarterly results in the spotlight. With central banks closely monitoring the situation, traders face a highly volatile environment across major asset classes. 

Focus now shifts to PMIs in Europe and the US, alongside critical UK retail data, to gauge the true economic fallout and test consumer resilience.

👉 Eurozone PMI

Manufacturing is forecast to slip into contraction at 49.5, with services cooling to 50.8. A weak print would confirm stagflation fears and pressure the euro. A surprise beat could trigger a brief risk-on rally.

👉 US PMI

The services sector is forecast unchanged at 51.7. A robust print reinforces the higher-for-longer rate narrative and supports the dollar. A softer print may fuel recession fears and accelerate safe haven flows.

👉 UK Retail Sales

A critical reality check for the British economy. Strong consumer spending will likely provide late-week support for the pound. A weak report could trigger a sharp risk-off sell-off in sterling.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Mar. 24	9:30 AM	EUR	German PMI
	10:00 AM	EUR	Eurozone PMI
	2:45 PM	USD	PMI
Wednesday, Mar. 25	1:30 AM	AUD	CPI
	8:00 AM	GBP	CPI
Thursday, Mar. 26	6:00 AM	JPY	BoJ Core CPI
Friday, Mar. 27	8:00 AM	GBP	Retail Sales

*All times in the table are in GMT+1

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: The euro played out the preferred previous scenario, bouncing off support and pushing up to resistance. However, sellers aggressively defended this resistance twice, driving the price back down. Overall, the pair remains below both the 20 and 50 EMAs. This technical alignment, combined with the sharp rejection at resistance, strongly indicates the continuation of the broader bearish trend.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred approach is a bearish continuation. The primary objective is a downward move into the underlying support zone, which perfectly aligns with a marked pool of resting liquidity.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A daily close above the current resistance level would invalidate the bearish bias. This price action would create a structural shift, signalling an end to the current downtrend and a potential reversal.

FVG Setup: No new fair value gap has formed in recent sessions due to a lack of aggressive price action moves.

GBPJPY

Market Context: The pair has been in a steady bullish trend, consistently printing higher highs and higher lows. However, after tagging previous resistance, price action created a short FVG. The asset is currently reacting to the upper boundary of this inefficiency, which is acting as a strong dynamic resistance level for sellers.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred bias is a short-term bearish move according to the FVG resistance. The immediate target is the nearest swing low, with the potential for the move to extend further down into the support zone.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A sustained recovery and subsequent close above the current resistance would negate the short-term selling pressure. This would confirm that the bullish trend remains intact, setting up a potential run toward the marked highs above the resistance zone.

FVG Setup: The primary active setup relies on the previously formed bearish FVG. Its upper boundary is currently serving as the main resistance zone to execute the preferred short scenario.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold experienced a massive, aggressive drop directly into its lower support zone. While the daily chart is exhibiting a clear bearish move, the broader weekly bullish structure remains intact. To sustain this uptrend, the weekly close must remain above this critical support floor. Currently, this sharp decline appears to be a deep liquidity grab following a multi-month uptrend.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred outlook is a bullish reversal bouncing from this major support zone. The ideal strategy involves dropping to lower timeframes to identify new bullish FVGs, aiming to capitalise on a move that fills the void left by the recent aggressive sell-off.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A definitive weekly close below the current support level would be a major structural break. This would invalidate the long thesis and confirm that the weekly timeframe has shifted into a bearish one.

FVG Setup

While several bearish FVGs formed during the aggressive drop, extreme caution is advised. Executing short setups after such an exhausted move into major support is not recommended, as it likely signals the market is trapping late sellers to build liquidity for a long continuation.

US100

Market Context: As anticipated, the US100 continues its persistent bearish trend. The index remains heavily constrained below both EMAs and has successfully swept the targeted downside liquidity pools. Currently, price action is reacting to an underlying support level that is structurally built upon a larger weekly FVG.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The overall bias remains short. The approach is to look for a continuation of the current bearish trend, capitalising on the sustained selling pressure.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A sustained recovery and subsequent close above resistance would invalidate the current bearish bias, signalling a structural shift and a potential new long trend.

FVG Setup: Last week’s short FVG setup hit a tight stop loss before eventually dropping perfectly in the predicted direction. This serves as a vital reminder that trading is entirely a game of probabilities. If you stick to your trading plan and risk management, standard losses should be expected and not deter you from executing the next valid setup.

All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders.