Trading Week Ahead: Global Inflation Fears

Escalating Middle East tensions and a sharp rally in crude oil have reignited global inflation fears. Against this volatile backdrop, traders face a critical week as fresh US producer prices lead directly into high-stakes policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The focus rests heavily on whether policymakers adjust their forward guidance to address the rising energy prices

👉 US PPI

Headline producer prices are forecast to cool to 0.3% following a previous 0.5% increase. As a key leading indicator for inflation, an upside surprise forces a hawkish curve repricing and lifts the dollar, while a softer number may cap yields and support equities ahead of the Fed.

👉 FOMC Statement

Rates are widely expected to remain on hold, making the updated dot plot and forward guidance the primary focus. A hawkish shift to address energy-driven inflation risks could crush risk sentiment and drive broad USD strength, whereas dovish signals would trigger a sharp relief rally.

👉 ECB Refinancing Rate

Traders expect the main policy rate to hold at 2.15%, but surging European gas prices have complicated the outlook. Hawkish forward guidance addressing entrenched inflation will trigger immediate euro strength. A focus on growth risks and a weakening jobs market may weigh heavily on the single currency.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Monday, Mar. 16	01:30 PM	CAD	CAD CPI
Tuesday, Mar. 17	04:30 AM	AUD	AUD Cash Rate
Wednesday, Mar. 18	11:00 AM	EUR	EUR CPI
	01:30 PM	USD	US PPI
	02:45 PM	CAD	BOC Rate Statement
	07:00 PM	USD	FOMC Statement
Thursday, Mar. 19	04:00 AM	JPY	BoJ Rate Decision
	08:00 AM	GBP	UK Claimant Count
	01:00 PM	GBP	BOE Bank Rate
	02:15 PM	EUR	ECB Refinancing Rate

*All times in the table are in GMT+1

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This technical analysis uses the EMA 20 and EMA 50 to determine market trends, alongside the Fair Value Gap (FVG), which refers to price imbalances caused by aggressive movements, signalling key entry and exit points. This strategy applies to EURUSD, GBPJPY, US100, and XAUUSD, providing insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

EURUSD

Market Context: Tuesday initiated with a sharp sell-off into a primary support level, where buyers are currently attempting to step in and absorb the selling pressure. The market is now at a pivotal structural juncture.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): The immediate outlook favours a short-term long position, targeting the overhead resistance zone. The viability of this setup is highly dependent on sustained buying momentum and positive price action confirmation at the current support floor.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A continuation of the broader bearish trend. This scenario would be validated by a definitive daily close below the current support level, signalling a breakdown in buyer defence.

FVG Setup: No new FVG is highlighted for this session. Last week's short FVG setup played out exceptionally well, successfully achieving its 3.8 RRR target.

GBPJPY

Market Context: As anticipated, the pound rallied into the major resistance level, effectively sweeping the previous swing high before facing a sharp rejection. Following this drop, price action is currently testing the 20-period and 50-period EMAs, which are presently acting as dynamic support.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The preferred bias is a continuation of the current downside momentum. The primary target is the lower support zone, which serves as a pool of resting liquidity.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): If buyers successfully defend the 20 and 50 EMAs, the asset may resume its upward trajectory, neutralising the immediate bearish pressure.

FVG Setup: No FVG has formed this week due to relatively compressed price action.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Despite geopolitical tension that typically supports safe-haven assets, gold experienced a substantial sell-off into support. The asset is currently trading below the 20 EMA, indicating near-term weakness.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The primary bias remains short, a perspective further supported by historical bearish seasonality in March. To confirm this setup, a decisive close below the current support level is required, with the next major swing low acting as a downside target.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A positive reaction and bounce from the current support could trigger a rally toward overhead resistance. This resistance level is anticipated to act as a supply zone where sellers will likely re-enter the market.

FVG Setup: A bearish FVG has formed. Short entries can be executed on a corrective pullback into this inefficiency, targeting a standard 2:1 RRR or the highlighted downside liquidity.

US100

Market Context: The US100 remains heavily constrained below both the 20 and 50 EMAs. This technical alignment confirms an intact and persistent bearish market structure, with sellers maintaining clear control of the order flow.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): The optimal approach is a bearish continuation, utilising the recently formed short FVG. The objective for this setup is a minimum 2:1 RRR, with the potential to extend the trade toward the marked downside liquidity pools.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A sustained recovery and subsequent close above the resistance level would invalidate the current bearish thesis, signalling a definitive structural shift in the market.

FVG Setup: A bearish FVG is currently active. Short entries executed within this zone align perfectly with the preferred bearish macro scenario.

All information provided on this site is intended solely for educational purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. FTMO only provides services of simulated trading and educational tools for traders.