In this analysis, we examine the probability of gap being filled. A gap occurs when there is a difference between the closing price of the previous day and the opening price of the following day. For example, the Dax closes on Monday at 12 000, Tuesday opens at 12 020. In this case, the gap size is 20 points.
Firstly, let’s discuss opening locations and gap types:
Out of range: current session opened outside of the range of the previous day.
In range: current session opened within the range of the previous day.
Long gap: the opening price of the current day is higher than the closing price of the previous day.
Short gap: the opening price of the current day is lower than the closing price of the previous day.
Now let's move to the Excel sheet. We first interpret all the information the table says.
- Gap size is the only cell open for editing. Here we write the current gap size immediately after the current session opens. To get the correct result, it's important to round the gap size to whole points. If we have a gap of 19.5 points, we write 20 in this cell.
- The left part of the table shows the values for the gaps that took place in the range of the previous day. The right part of the table shows the values for gaps that took place outside of the previous day's range.
- “The first row of each table show how many times the given gap has occurred, in this case 20 points. The long gap 20 point gap occurred 18 times and was filled in 67%. The short gap of 20 points occurred 26 times and 88% of these 26 occurrences were filled.
- Due to the high volatility of Dax, it is also appropriate to look at similarly large gaps. For this reason, we added probability of filling gaps of similar size.
- The "Average" cell averages the range of all nearby values in the given gap category.
- Download the Excel sheet
Let’s take for an example day 20th of October 2017. As soon as the Dax opened we measure the gap size and enter the size into the Excel sheet. From the chart we can also read this information:
- Dax opened in the previous day’s range.
- The gap is considered as the long gap.
- The gap size is 31 points.
From the table, we can see that the long gap of 31 points, which took place in the range of the previous day occurred exactly 8 times and was filled in 88% of these occurrences.
The average closing value for the gap size from 26 points to 35 points is 70%.
How to trade it?
- If the probability of gap being filled is high, it is logical to trade in the direction of the gap.
- If the probability of gap being filled is high, it is logical to postpone or do not take trades in the opposite direction
- Closing price of the previous day serves as the logical level for determining the profit target.