Trading Week Ahead: US Jobless Claims, PMIs & Home Sales Ahead

This week’s economic calendar features high-impact US data that could shape market sentiment across major assets, from fresh labour market signals via unemployment claims to early snapshots of economic activity through Flash PMIs.

• Unemployment Claims
Thursday’s weekly jobless claims remain a key barometer of labour market conditions in the US. The previous figure stood at 229K, and even though no specific forecast is available, any significant surprise could trigger volatility across USD pairs and equity markets. Traders will monitor the data closely as it feeds into broader expectations around Fed policy and economic momentum.

• Flash PMI (Manufacturing & Services)
Preliminary S&P global flash PMI data for May (due Thursday) will provide early insight into the state of the US economy. Last month’s readings stood at 50.2 for manufacturing and 50.8 for services, barely above the expansion threshold. A drop below 50 could raise concerns about slowing growth, while any upside surprise could support USD strength and risk appetite.

• Existing Home Sales
Also set for release on Thursday, existing home sales offer a key look into the health of the US housing market amid persistently high interest rates. A continued decline in sales would indicate consumer strain and tightening financial conditions and potentially weigh on housing-related equities and dampen overall market sentiment.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Monday, May. 19	11:00 AM	EUR	CPI
Tuesday, May. 20	6:30 AM	AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
	8:00 AM	EUR	German PPI
	2:30 PM	CAD	CPI
Wednesday, May. 21	8:00 AM	GBP	CPI
Thursday, May. 22	9:15 AM	EUR	French Flash PMI
	9:30 AM	EUR	German PMI
	10:00 AM	EUR	Flash PMI
	10:30 AM	GBP	Flash PMI
	2:30 PM	USD	Unemployment Claims
	3:45 PM	USD	Flash PMI
	4:00 PM	USD	Existing Home Sales
Friday, May. 23	8:00 AM	GBP	Retail Sales
	8:00 AM	EUR	German GDP
	2:30 PM	CAD	Retail Sales
	4:00 PM	USD	New Home Sales

*All times in the table are in GMT+2

Technical Analysis with FVG Strategy

This trading approach leverages the 20 and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to assess the prevailing market trend, while the Fair Value Gap (FVG) is used to pinpoint zones of price inefficiency. These gaps, formed during sharp price movements, often highlight optimal entry or exit levels. The strategy is suitable for instruments like EURUSD, GBPJPY, US30, and XAUUSD and offers insights into both last week’s market opportunities and the current one.

Last Week’s Opportunities

EURUSD

Market Context: EURUSD is trading below the 20 EMA, having recently tested the 50 EMA with a bullish reaction. Despite the bounce, the pair remains technically pressured, lacking momentum for a decisive move higher.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Price could reject current levels and retrace towards the nearest support, potentially sweeping recent lows.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A break above the recent swing high could trigger a move towards the next resistance zone.

Setup: No FVG setup formed this or last week. Market structure remains neutral to slightly bearish.

XAUUSD

Market Context: Gold continues its broader bearish correction after an extended rally. Price has broken below the 20 EMA and is currently testing the 50 EMA.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): A breakdown below the 50 EMA could confirm a medium-term bearish trend, targeting support zones and swing low liquidity.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): A recovery from the EMA 50 could trigger a bounce towards the nearest resistance, followed by potential continuation to the downside.

Setup: A short FVG setup formed last week but failed to trigger. No new FVG setup was identified this week.

US30

Market Context: US30 remains in a strong bullish trend, trading significantly above both the 20 and 50 EMAs. Price action confirms sustained upward momentum.

Bullish Scenario (Preferred): Continued rally into the marked resistance zone remains the base case.

Bearish Scenario (Alternative): A pullback to the 20 EMA after a swing low sweep could offer a reactive long entry and continuation higher.

Setup: No FVG setup formed this or last week. Market conditions remain clean with low imbalance signals.

Opportunities to Watch This Week

GBPJPY

Market Context: GBPJPY maintains bullish momentum, although recent swing high sweeps led to a short-term correction. A short FVG setup was identified during the dip.

Bearish Scenario (Preferred): Continuation lower into EMAs and key support zones, potentially targeting swing lows.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): Breakout above resistance and FVG invalidation could renew bullish structure towards higher levels.

Setup: A short FVG setup was confirmed this week. Last week’s setup failed to trigger and is now invalid.

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