Weekly market recap

Your weekly global financial market newsletter

  • The new U.S. President, Donald Trump, apparently anticipated entering office richer than ever. On Friday, he announced the launch of his new cryptocurrency, whose value soared from nearly zero to $75 over the weekend (it traded at around $60 on Monday after dropping to $40).
  • The total supply of the cryptocurrency, labeled $TRUMP or "Official Trump," was intended to be set at 1 billion tokens. However, only 200 million have been released into circulation initially, with the remaining tokens held by Trump-owned companies CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight LLC. These are scheduled to be gradually released into the market over the next three years. CIC Digital LLC and Celebration Cards LLC, which own Fight Fight LLC, are set to earn revenue from trading the $TRUMP cryptocurrency.
  • Setting aside any moral, ethical, or legal concerns this move by the new U.S. President may raise, Donald Trump's fortune could have exceeded $67 billion (after accounting for other assets) when the token's price surged to $75 on Sunday (a total market capitalization of $75 billion, 80% of which Trump owns through his companies). This leap placed him among the top 25 richest people in the world within two days, compared to his ranking of 415th on Friday.

Indices

U.S. stocks posted their first profitable week of 2025, achieving their best weekly performance since last November, ahead of a free Monday and the inauguration of a new president. The financial sector performed exceptionally well, with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo surpassing analysts’ expectations and reporting very strong results. Toward the end of the week, major technology stocks also excelled, with Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft standing out.

European stocks continued to rise last week, supported by the ECB’s dovish stance, which suggested no further interest rate cuts. The STOXX 50 index closed at its highest level since 2000, while the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 rose 2.37%, just a point shy of its all-time high. France’s CAC 40 climbed 3.75%, Germany’s DAX gained 3.41%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 Index added 3.11%.

US30
+3.69%
US100
+2.85%
US500
+2.91%
GER30
+3.41%

Commodities

Despite Friday’s decline, oil prices recorded their fourth consecutive weekly increase, reaching their highest level since last September. One of the main reasons for this is the sanctions imposed by the U.S. on Russian producers and tankers, leading to supply constraints, particularly in Europe, India, and China. Additionally, investors are considering the possibility of further sanctions being introduced once Donald Trump takes office. According to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, traders increased their net long positions by 8,038 contracts to 215,193 contracts in the period ending January 14.

Donald Trump’s rise to power is also impacting gold prices, with investors anticipating increased volatility. While weaker macroeconomic data has supported the likelihood of further interest rate cuts in the U.S., which is beneficial for gold prices, the ceasefire in the Middle East is having the opposite effect by reducing demand for gold as a safe haven. The trajectory of gold prices will also depend on whether Trump delivers on his tariff promises, which could significantly impact the global economy, or whether the implementation of his measures is slower, causing less market turbulence.

Gold
+0.57%
Silver
-0.15%
BRENT
+1.29%
NATGAS
-1.03%

Forex

The euro rose for the first time in a while last week, recovering from its two-year low against the U.S. dollar. Initially, it was supported by reports suggesting that Donald Trump’s introduction of tariffs would be more gradual and less aggressive. Toward the end of the week, the European currency was further boosted by inflation data, which showed a slight increase. The euro’s rise was likely also aided by statements from some ECB officials urging caution in cutting rates and emphasizing the need to avoid hasty monetary easing due to persistently high inflation and significant uncertainty.

EUR/USD
+0.30%
USD/JPY
-0.93%
GBP/USD
-0.35%
USD/CAD
+0.36%

Macro

Although U.S. inflation increased further in annual terms in December to 2.9%, its core component surprised positively with lower growth of 3.2% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, compared to market expectations of 3.3% and 0.3%, respectively.

According to the Commerce Department, U.S. retail sales rose by 0.4% last month, following a 0.8% increase in November, but fell short of estimates that predicted a 0.6% rise.

New claims for unemployment benefits increased to 217,000 during the week, up from 203,000 the previous week and exceeding consensus estimates.

In the UK, consumer prices unexpectedly slowed to 2.5% in December from 2.6% in November, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England might cut rates as early as February. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, fell to 3.2% from 3.5%.

UK GDP grew by just 0.1% in November, recovering from slight contractions recorded in the previous two months, but falling below the consensus forecast of 0.2% growth.

Germany’s economy contracted by 0.2% in 2024, marking its second consecutive annual decline.

What to watch out for this week

  • The new week in the U.S. will be shortened by a public holiday on Monday, coinciding with the inauguration of new President Donald Trump. Markets will focus on his speech, which may provide important insights into his future policies.
  • In addition, U.S. data releases will include the traditional weekly unemployment claims report and, on Friday, existing home sales statistics, which could indicate another slight recovery.
  • In Europe, UK labor market data will be released early in the week, along with the ZEW consumer confidence index, which is not expected to show significant changes.
  • Preliminary Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for both the services and manufacturing sectors will be released later in the week. For the services sector, growth is expected to moderate in Europe, while a slight improvement is anticipated in the manufacturing sector.

Disclaimer

All information provided on this site is intended solely for the study purposes related to trading on financial markets and does not serve in any way as a specific investment recommendation, business recommendation, investment opportunity, analysis or similar general recommendation regarding the trading of investment instruments. The content, in its entirety or parts, is the sole opinion of FTMO and is intended for educational purposes only. The historical results and/or track record does not imply that the same progress is replicable and does not guarantee profits or future profitable trading records or any promises whatsoever. Trading in financial markets is a high-risk activity, and it is advised not to risk more than one can afford to lose!