Weekly market recap

Your weekly global financial market newsletter

US stocks have had one of their worst quarters, gold continues to break all-time records and the US dollar is likely to post its biggest monthly loss since November 2022.

Indices

Despite a strong start to the week, US stocks ended up posting significant weekly losses once again, setting them up for one of the worst quarterly results since 2022. First, investors were unpleasantly surprised on Tuesday by a sharp drop in consumer confidence, coupled with Donald Trump’s confirmation of reciprocal tariffs. Then, on Friday, fears of rising inflation and signs of weakness in the US economy ultimately convinced investors that optimism has no place in the stock markets.

European equities, also weighed down by uncertainty in US markets, followed a similar pattern last week. The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 ended 1.4% lower, Germany’s DAX fell 1.88%, France’s CAC 40 Index lost 1.58%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 managed a modest 0.14% gain.

US30

-0.96%

US100

-2.39%

US500

-1.53%

GER30

-1.88%

Commodities

Gold investors have taken great pleasure in the uncertainty that U.S. President Donald Trump has been spreading in recent months. As a safe-haven asset in situations like this, gold has been rising, and its price has regularly set new records in recent weeks. With some U.S. banks already predicting a possible recession due to rising inflation and falling consumer confidence, gold approached the $3,100 per ounce level last week—surpassing it on Monday morning. Gold is therefore on track to end March with a gain of around 8%, having risen nearly 19% since the beginning of the year.

The price of Brent crude oil, despite weakening on Friday due to concerns over the impact of Trump’s tariffs, still added around 2% for the week. This marks the third consecutive week of gains, bringing the monthly increase to over 2%. However, Brent is down about 2% since the start of the year and has fallen more than 16% over the past year.

Gold

+2.01%

Silver

+3.26%

BRENT

+2.04%

NATGAS

+2.14%

Forex

Although markets were expecting a rally in the U.S. dollar after the presidential election, the opposite has been true, as evidenced in the first quarter of this year. At the beginning of the year, the dollar was at its peak, reaching its highest level since October 2022, but it has since experienced a significant decline. As a result, the U.S. dollar has lost more than 2% over the past month and has already declined by more than 4% since the start of the year.

Expected tax cuts, deregulation, the introduction of tariffs, tighter migration policies, and government spending cuts have not materialized. Recently, investors have instead perceived a slowdown in the U.S. economy due to political uncertainty, tighter fiscal policy, and the introduction of new tariffs—something Donald Trump also mentioned last week. The dollar’s weakening against the euro was further driven by newly promised stimulus measures in Germany and increased defense spending by the EU.

EUR/USD

+0.12%

USD/JPY

+0.36%

GBP/USD

+0.12%

USD/CAD

-0.27%

Macro

The preliminary March Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the U.S. and Europe were released on Monday. In Germany, the manufacturing PMI improved significantly in March, while the services sector disappointed. Although the manufacturing PMI remains below 50 points, the reading of 48.3 is still the highest since August 2022.

PMIs in Europe sent mixed signals. The composite PMI for the euro area rose to 50.4 points (February: 50.2 points), and the manufacturing PMI increased to 48.7 points (estimate: 48 points, February: 47.6 points). However, the services sector PMI fell to 50.4 points (estimate: 51 points, February: 50.6 points).

According to data from S&P Global, the U.S. composite PMI rose to 53.5 points in March (February: 51.6 points). The services PMI climbed to 54.3 points (estimate: 50.8 points, February: 51 points), while the manufacturing PMI declined to 49.8 points (estimate: 51.8 points, February: 52.7 points).

Tuesday: U.S. consumer confidence for March fell sharply due to uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies and rising prices. The Conference Board’s expectations index dropped to its lowest level since 2012, signaling a possible economic slowdown.

The number of building permits issued in the U.S. declined by 1% in February to an annualized rate of 1.459 million (January: -0.6% to 1.473 million), according to final data.

U.S. new home sales fell 10.5% month-over-month in January to an annualized pace of 657,000 units (December: +3.6% to 698,000 units).

Wednesday: UK inflation declined more sharply than expected in February. On an annual basis, the consumer price index rose 2.8% after a 3% increase in January; however, only a tenth of a percentage point decline had been expected. On a month-over-month basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4%.

Durable goods orders in the United States rose 0.9% month-over-month in February. A 1% decline had been expected following a 3.3% increase in January.

Thursday: The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the final quarter of last year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce’s final report released on Thursday. The result was slightly better than the revised estimate, driven by higher consumer spending.

The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the United States fell to 224,000 in the week ending March 22, down from 225,000 the previous week (revised from 223,000). The expected figure was 225,000.

Friday: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that its core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—rose 0.4% in February, up from January’s reading of 0.3%, while inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose just 0.1% compared with estimates for a 0.3% rise. On a year-over-year basis, the core PCE rose 2.8%, remaining well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%.

What to watch out for this week

The turn of March and April will be marked by the anticipated release of the U.S. administration's overall approach to tariff policy. The repeatedly announced tariffs should be specified, with clarity on their timing, process, and scope. The market is highly sensitive to this information, as many investors were (and may still be) hoping for an easing or postponement of the measures. D-Day is expected to be Wednesday, April 2, when the tariffs will be officially announced, and at least a significant portion of them will take effect almost immediately.
In addition, the end of the month will be packed with new macroeconomic data. Following Monday’s unsurprising inflation report from Germany, attention will turn to EU inflation. Headline inflation is projected to ease to 2.2% in March, the lowest in four months, while core inflation is expected to slow to 2.5%, the weakest since January 2022. The final PMIs for Europe and the U.S. are also due, which should confirm this week's preliminary data.
Among the most closely watched releases will be U.S. labor market data, particularly in light of how the labor market responds to the newly introduced tariffs. Job creation remains healthy after a weak start to the year, essentially holding at 2024 levels. Layoffs, which are typically a sign of recession, remain at very low levels. T
he U.S. economy is expected to have added 128,000 jobs, down from 151,000 in February, while the unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 4.2%. Additional labor market data will be released throughout the week, including JOLTS job openings, ADP employment change, and Challenger job cuts.

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