Trading Week Ahead: Powell, PMI & GDP Set the Stage for Volatility

Three key US macro events are set to drive market sentiment this week: Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, Flash PMI data, and the final estimate of Q2 US GDP. Each event could significantly influence interest rate expectations, move Treasury yields, and spark volatility across equities and the US dollar. Here’s what traders need to watch.

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks
The Fed delivered its first rate cut last week, and markets expect two more by early 2026. Powell’s Tuesday speech will be key for clues on timing. A dovish tone could weaken the dollar and lift equities, while a cautious message may support yields and weigh on risk sentiment.

• US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
Flash PMIs, due Tuesday, will offer a timely snapshot of economic activity. Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 51.8 from 53.0, while Services PMI is forecast to dip to 53.8 from 54.5. Both remain in expansion territory, but weaker-than-expected results may fuel concerns about a slowdown and strengthen the case for Fed easing. Stronger data would likely support the dollar and risk sentiment.

• US Final GDP
The final GDP figure for the second quarter is due Thursday, with the forecast holding steady at 3.3%, matching the previous estimate. While no change is expected, any revision could shift the market’s view of the US economy. A stronger number would likely boost Treasury yields and the dollar. A weaker result could increase expectations for policy easing later this year.

*All times in the table are in GMT+2