Trading Week Ahead: Nonfarm Payrolls & Trump’s Speech Set the Tone for Markets

As markets brace for a pivotal week, traders are eyeing three major catalysts: President Trump’s speech, JOLTS job data, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls report. With political tensions rising and economic uncertainty looming, each event could stir sharp price action across FX, indices, and bonds.

• President Trump Speaks
President Trump is set to speak on Monday evening, with his remarks coming at a critical time as the US faces the looming threat of a government shutdown. Markets will closely monitor his stance on fiscal policy, the Fed, and budget tensions. Any signals of political instability or pressure on the central bank could trigger swift volatility across USD pairs and equity indices

• JOLTS Job Openings
Labour market momentum comes into focus on Tuesday with the latest JOLTS data (previous: 7.18M, forecast: 7.15M). A notable decline in job openings could signal softening demand, increasing the case for rate cuts. However, resilient figures would support the Fed’s hawkish bias and lend strength to the dollar.

• Nonfarm Payrolls
Friday’s NFP report (previous: 22K, forecast: 51K) arrives during rising political uncertainty. If a shutdown hits, the market will focus even more on economic data. Strong payroll growth might delay rate cuts and lift the dollar, while weaker figures could boost risk appetite and weigh on the greenback.

*All times in the table are in GMT+2