Trading Week Ahead Three Events That Could Change Everything

Markets are heading into a data-heavy week with three major US releases that could reshape the Fed narrative going into 2026. November’s Retail Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls, and CPI will test the resilience of consumer demand, the labour market, and inflation pressures.

Stay ahead as the market prepares for its final move of the year.

👉 US Retail Sales - October sales are expected to match the prior 0.2% rise, reflecting steady but unspectacular consumer momentum. A stronger print could revive optimism around growth resilience, lifting the dollar and weighing on rate-cut expectations. Conversely, a miss may spark USD softness and boost risk appetite.

👉 Nonfarm Payrolls - Following a 119K increase in October, November’s job report will be key for gauging labour market momentum. Softer data could fuel dovish Fed pricing and pressure the dollar, while a solid upside surprise would support delaying rate cuts and boost yields.

👉 US CPI - October inflation printed at 0.3% month-on-month. November's CPI will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s 2026 outlook. A hotter reading may strengthen the dollar and lift yields, while cooler data would support risk assets and revive dovish market sentiment.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Monday, Dec. 15	2:30 PM	CAD	CPI
Tuesday, Dec. 16	8:00 AM	GBP	Claimant Count Change
	9:30 AM	EUR	German PMI
	10:30 AM	GBP	Flash PMI
	2:30 PM	USD	Average Hourly Earnings
		USD	Retail Sales
		USD	Nonfarm Payrolls
	3:45 PM	USD	Flash PMI
Wednesday, Dec. 17	8:00 AM	GBP	CPI
	11:00 AM	EUR	CPI
Thursday, Dec. 18	1:00 PM	GBP	Official Bank Rate
	2:15 PM	EUR	Main Refinancing Rate
	2:30 PM	USD	CPI
Friday, Dec. 19	8:00 AM	GBP	Retail Sales
		EUR	German PPI
	4:00 PM	USD	Existing Home Sales

*All times in the table are in GMT+1