Trading Week Ahead: Middle East Conflict Shocks Markets
Markets enter the week under the shadow of escalating Middle East tensions. Joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and the risk of wider regional spillover, have sent oil sharply higher and pushed gold into rally mode, raising fresh concerns about renewed inflation pressure. Against this volatile backdrop, Eurozone CPI, US Retail Sales, and Nonfarm Payrolls will test whether economic fundamentals can offset geopolitical risk.
👉 Eurozone CPI
Inflation is forecast to hold steady at 1.7%, unchanged from the previous reading. A surprise to the upside could lift EUR and push European yields higher. A softer print may strengthen expectations of further ECB easing and weigh on the euro.
👉 US Retail Sales
Consumer spending is expected to contract by 0.3% after a flat 0.0% print previously. A stronger-than-expected result could support USD and challenge rate cut bets. A deeper decline may pressure the dollar and boost risk sentiment.
👉 Nonfarm Payrolls
Job creation is forecast to slow sharply to 58,000 from 130,000 previously. A solid upside surprise would reinforce confidence in the US economy and lift yields. A weak report could trigger broad volatility across currencies, bonds, and equities.
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Date
Time
Instrument
Event
Monday, Mar. 2
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday, Mar. 3
CPI
Spring Forecast Statement
Annual Budget Release
Wednesday, Mar. 4
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
ISM Services PMI
Thursday, Mar. 5
Unemployment Claims
Friday, Mar. 6
Nonfarm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings
Retail Sales
*All times in the table are in GMT+1
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