Trading Week Ahead: Global Inflation Fears
Escalating Middle East tensions and a sharp rally in crude oil have reignited global inflation fears. Against this volatile backdrop, traders face a critical week as fresh US producer prices lead directly into high-stakes policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The focus rests heavily on whether policymakers adjust their forward guidance to address the rising energy prices
👉 US PPI
Headline producer prices are forecast to cool to 0.3% following a previous 0.5% increase. As a key leading indicator for inflation, an upside surprise forces a hawkish curve repricing and lifts the dollar, while a softer number may cap yields and support equities ahead of the Fed.
👉 FOMC Statement
Rates are widely expected to remain on hold, making the updated dot plot and forward guidance the primary focus. A hawkish shift to address energy-driven inflation risks could crush risk sentiment and drive broad USD strength, whereas dovish signals would trigger a sharp relief rally.
👉 ECB Refinancing Rate
Traders expect the main policy rate to hold at 2.15%, but surging European gas prices have complicated the outlook. Hawkish forward guidance addressing entrenched inflation will trigger immediate euro strength. A focus on growth risks and a weakening jobs market may weigh heavily on the single currency.
| Date | Time | Instrument | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Mar. 16 |
01:30 PM
|
CAD
|
CAD CPI |
| Tuesday, Mar. 17 |
04:30 AM
|
AUD
|
AUD Cash Rate |
| Wednesday, Mar. 18 |
11:00 AM
|
EUR
|
EUR CPI |
|
01:30 PM
|
USD
|
US PPI | |
|
02:45 PM
|
CAD
|
BOC Rate Statement | |
|
07:00 PM
|
USD
|
FOMC Statement | |
| Thursday, Mar. 19 |
04:00 AM
|
JPY
|
BoJ Rate Decision |
|
08:00 AM
|
GBP
|
UK Claimant Count | |
|
01:00 PM
|
GBP
|
BOE Bank Rate | |
|
02:15 PM
|
EUR
|
ECB Refinancing Rate |
*All times in the table are in GMT+1
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