Trading Week Ahead: Central Banks & CPI in the Spotlight

Markets face a pivotal week as central bank decisions and inflation data collide. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a second rate cut, but it’s Powell’s forward guidance that will dictate the broader market tone. Across the Atlantic, the ECB holds steady, yet any dovish shift from Lagarde could rattle the euro. Meanwhile, Friday’s Eurozone CPI will serve as a critical gauge for future policy moves, with volatility likely to surge across all markets.

• Fed Rate Decision
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates from 4.25% to 4.00% this Wednesday, marking its second straight easing move. However, the key market driver will be the forward guidance accompanying the decision. If Chair Powell signals openness to further cuts amid weakening macro data, the USD could face renewed pressure, yields may fall, and equities could find support. Conversely, a more cautious or hawkish tone could stabilise the greenback and spark profit-taking across risk assets.

• ECB Rate Decision
The ECB is set to hold rates steady at 2.15%, but traders will be laser-focused on the language and tone of the Monetary Policy Statement. Should President Lagarde adopt a dovish stance, indicating possible future cuts amid stagnating growth and soft inflation, EUR pairs may slide. Alternatively, a more hawkish or data-dependent message could support the euro and temper rate cut bets.

• Eurozone CPI
Friday’s Eurozone CPI release will test whether inflation is easing in line with ECB projections. A stronger-than-expected print may delay any hopes for monetary easing, potentially lifting EUR and pushing bond yields higher. A soft inflation figure, however, would likely intensify rate cut expectations and weaken the euro, creating space for upside in European equities and bonds.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Oct. 28	3:00 PM	USD	CB Consumer Confidence (tentative)
Wednesday, Oct. 29	2:45 PM	CAD	BOC Rate Statement
	7:00 PM	USD	Federal Funds Rate
	7:30 PM	USD	FOMC Press Conference
Thursday, Oct. 30	10:00 AM	EUR	German GDP
	1:30 PM	USD	GDP (tentative)
	2:00 PM	EUR	German CPI
	2:15 PM	EUR	Monetary Policy Statement
	2:45 PM	EUR	ECB Press Conference
Friday, Oct. 31	11:00 AM	EUR	CPI
	1:30 PM	CAD	GDP
		USD	Core PCE Price Index (tentative)

*All times in the table are in GMT+2
*US government data may be impacted by the shutdown. (Tentative) events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation.

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