Trading Week Ahead: Key Data to Shape Fed’s December Decision

With the Fed considering a possible December rate cut and key data still limited by the government shutdown, this week’s ISM Services, ADP Jobs and UoM Inflation Expectations reports take on added importance. Markets will be watching for signs of economic strength or weakness that could influence the Fed’s next move.

👉 Here’s what traders need to know.

• ISM Services PMI
Wednesday’s services PMI is expected to rise to 50.8 from 50.0, signalling slight expansion. A stronger print could reduce rate cut hopes, lifting the dollar and yields. A miss may trigger a dovish shift and boost risk assets.

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
ADP jobs data is forecast at +28K after last month’s -32K drop. A rebound would challenge easing bets and support USD strength. Another weak print could weigh on the dollar and lift equities.

• University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
Friday’s UoM survey follows a previous 4.6% inflation expectation. Persistently high readings may keep the Fed cautious. A decline would support dovish sentiment and market optimism.

*All times in the table are in GMT+2
*US government data may be impacted by the shutdown. (Tentative) events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation.

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