Trading Week Ahead Three Events That Could Change Everything

Markets are heading into a data-heavy week with three major US releases that could reshape the Fed narrative going into 2026. November’s Retail Sales, Nonfarm Payrolls, and CPI will test the resilience of consumer demand, the labour market, and inflation pressures.

Stay ahead as the market prepares for its final move of the year.

👉 US Retail Sales – October sales are expected to match the prior 0.2% rise, reflecting steady but unspectacular consumer momentum. A stronger print could revive optimism around growth resilience, lifting the dollar and weighing on rate-cut expectations. Conversely, a miss may spark USD softness and boost risk appetite.

👉 Nonfarm Payrolls – Following a 119K increase in October, November’s job report will be key for gauging labour market momentum. Softer data could fuel dovish Fed pricing and pressure the dollar, while a solid upside surprise would support delaying rate cuts and boost yields.

👉 US CPI – October inflation printed at 0.3% month-on-month. November’s CPI will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s 2026 outlook. A hotter reading may strengthen the dollar and lift yields, while cooler data would support risk assets and revive dovish market sentiment.

15/12/25

Time

14:30

Instrument

CAD

Event
CPI

16/12/25

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
Claimant Count Change

Time

09:30

Instrument

EUR

Event
German PMI

Time

10:30

Instrument

GBP

Event
Flash PMI

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
Average Hourly Earnings

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
Retail Sales

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
Nonfarm Payrolls

Time

15:45

Instrument

USD

Event
Flash PMI

17/12/25

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
CPI

Time

11:00

Instrument

EUR

Event
CPI

18/12/25

Time

13:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
Official Bank Rate

Time

14:15

Instrument

EUR

Event
Main Refinancing Rate

Time

14:30

Instrument

USD

Event
CPI

19/12/25

Time

08:00

Instrument

GBP

Event
Retail Sales

Time

08:00

Instrument

EUR

Event
German PPI

Time

16:00

Instrument

USD

Event
Existing Home Sales

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
15/12/25	14:30	CAD	CPI
16/12/25	08:00	GBP	Claimant Count Change
	09:30	EUR	German PMI
	10:30	GBP	Flash PMI
	14:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings
		USD	Retail Sales
		USD	Nonfarm Payrolls
	15:45	USD	Flash PMI
17/12/25	08:00	GBP	CPI
	11:00	EUR	CPI
18/12/25	13:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate
	14:15	EUR	Main Refinancing Rate
	14:30	USD	CPI
19/12/25	08:00	GBP	Retail Sales
		EUR	German PPI
	16:00	USD	Existing Home Sales

*All times in the table are in GMT+1