Trading Week Ahead: FOMC and PCE in Focus

With US markets closed on Monday for a holiday, attention turns to a packed week of economic data and earnings. A cooler-than-expected inflation reading has revived hopes for a Fed rate cut as early as June, while AI-related concerns continue to weigh on tech. This week’s PCE inflation and GDP figures could provide a crucial update for policymakers and markets alike, alongside key corporate results from Walmart, Palo Alto Networks, and others.

👉 FOMC Meeting Minutes
On Wednesday evening, the minutes will offer a deeper look into the Fed’s January decision. Any signs of disagreement or concern around the inflation outlook could move yields and shift dollar sentiment.

👉 US GDP
Q4 growth is forecast to be revised down to 2.8% from the initial 4.4%. A downgrade may weigh on the soft-landing narrative and support risk assets. A stronger revision would likely boost the dollar.

👉 Core PCE Price Index
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to rise 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously. A hotter print could challenge dovish expectations and lift the dollar. A soft number would support equities and cut pricing.

Date	Time	Instrument	Event
Tuesday, Feb. 17	8:00 AM	GBP	Claimant Count Change
		EUR	German CPI
	2:30 PM	CAD	CPI
Wednesday, Feb. 18	8:00 AM	GBP	CPI
	8:00 PM	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, Feb. 19	4:00 PM	USD	Pending Home Sales
Friday, Feb. 20	8:00 AM	GBP	Retail Sales
	10:30 AM	GBP	PMI
	2:30 PM	CAD	Retail Sales
		USD	GDP
		USD	Core PCE Price Index
	3:45 PM	USD	PMI
	4:00 PM	USD	New Home Sales

*All times in the table are in GMT+1